Matt Simpson

With bond yields continuing to fall, it’s becoming too difficult for other markets to ignore and raises the prospects that sentient could finally crack. And that could see a lower USD/JPY. Whilst equity markets remain defiantly near cycle highs, they have shown signs of wobbling. Furthermore, we’re watching other markets feel the strain following an […]

Stalling at our $60 target, we suspect there could be further for upside potential for WTI judging from its bullish trend structure and encouraging signs from the weekly COT report. Prices are bouncing along the 8 and 21 eMA’s and Monday’s Doji held about the $58 area to suggest a shallow pullback may have completed. […]

Stating that the next OCR direction is likely to be down, RBNZ crunched their way out of neutral gear whilst NZD bulls burned rubber and headed for the exit. Summary of the March statement: The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.75%. Next OCR direction is more likely to be down. Global economic outlook has continued […]

As is usually the case, overnight implied volatility has spiked ahead of the central bank meeting, irrespective of the fact that most expect rates to remain unchanged at 1.75%. Still, it remains prudent to assume volatility could spike in the event of new or unexpected information. Summary of the February notes: OCR expected to remain […]

Whilst the bias for USD/CHF remains for a break to new lows on the daily chart, we see potential for a minor rebound for intraday traders as its correction completes. We noted recently that DXY could face headwinds as we head into April and, so far dollar bears are doing their bit to keep the […]

After the DAX failed to hold above 11,800, Friday’s bearish engulfing candle saw the index break beneath its bullish channel and prior swing low. With the bias remaining bearish beneath Friday’s high, we see its potential to head towards 10,900. We outlined the two scenarios for the DAX in our prior analysis, CAC, DAX Could […]

A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators. GBP traders reduced net-short exposure by 22k contracts, its largest weekly change in 9 months. Adjusted for open interest, traders are the most bearish on VIX since 2008. JPY futures rise to 7-week high, despite bears […]

Last Friday we highlighted CAD/CHF’s potential bearish Deja Vous pattern. Whilst bearish momentum is taking hold, we may see a pause in trend before it breaks to new lows. The daily trend structure is firmly bearish, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level performed well as resistance. Friday’s break out of its 36-pip range marked the […]

The most volatile session since the flash-crash saw USD/JPY break convincingly lower from its triangle formation. Moreover, it closed beneath the prior swing low and cluster of moving averages (50, 100 and 200-day eMA’s) to underscore the power of the breakout. The dovish tone of the meeting caught markets by surprise, which now sees the […]

EUR/USD has been oscillating within a bearish channel for the best part of this year. But having rebounded around 1.5% from its low (an area which saw euro reverse previously) we’re looking out for further signs of weakness that could signal a top. A small hammer suggests markets were hesitant to break higher, although the […]