EURUSD Fundamental & Technical Analysis (April 4, 2013)

The EURUSD rose about 40 pips in yesterday’s session, touching a strong resistance on the way, that stopped their upward momentum. ¿Will the EURUSD go bullish or bearish for today’s session?

The EURUSD found strong resistance at 1.2858, near the 200 day moving average. At that level, they formed a strong “congestion zone”, making a strong resistance on EURUSD. For the EURUSD may continue to rise, it needs to do a breakout at the resistances in 1.2858 and 1.2870, with objectives to the resistance at 1.2938. On the other hand, this may be the formation of a higher low pattern, that can allow to the EURUSD to fall to the support at 1.2800. If the EURUSD can do a breakout in this support (1.2800), another fall is possible at the support in 1.2758. The MACD is currently postive territory but showing overbought’s signs.

In the fundamental outlook, the EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday’s session, after the announcement by the IMF to deliver (lend) 1 billion euros to Cyprus in three years, but this announcement had little impact, as the EURUSD is at the expectation of the ECB press conference for today. We must be aware of the Following events for today:

– 12:45 GMT: (EU) ECB – Interest Rate Decision, which is expected to maintain the interest rate at 0.75%

– 13:30 GMT: (EU) ECB Press Conference. Be cautious during this event, as usually, these press conferences given by the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, generate a lot of volatility in the EUR pairs.

– 13:30 GMT: (US) Unemployment Claims, Which has a previous reading of 357K and a forecast of 352K. If the current reading is higher than the forecast, It could cause bearish Movements in the EURUSD.

– 15:30 GMT: (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks. Be cautious at this event, because the Bernanke’s words, produce high volatility on USD pairs.

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