Since early February, AUD/JPY has moved sideways in a 240-pip range. We highlighted its potential to roll over from its highs on Monday and, whilst that potential still remains, we have to be open to the potential for a bullish breakout too.
Since the prior analysis, the intraday double top failed to materialise, as prices didn’t break below 78.90 to confirm. Having now cycled back higher, the potential for a triple top remains, although this is now less favourable given the bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart yesterday.
We essentially have 2 competing scenarios which hinge around a 90-pip range
A break above 79.84 takes AUD/JPY to a multi-month high and would assume general risk-on environment.
Or a break below 78.90 confirms a triple top (if it moves quickly) is simply a move lower within the wider range.
This makes the 78.90-79.80 range of vital importance, as a breakout of it could signal its next momentum move.
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