DiscoverGold
6 days ago
Gold Miners’ Q3’24 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton | November 15, 2024
The major gold miners’ latest quarterly results proved epic! Thanks to record gold prices, they achieved record revenues, record bottom-line earnings, and record operating cash flows. Such amazing profits drove down gold-stock valuations to their most-undervalued levels in many years. These super-strong fundamentals combined with gold’s healthy and overdue pullback are creating excellent buying opportunities.
The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s dominant benchmark. Birthed way back in May 2006, GDX has parlayed its first-mover advantage into an insurmountable lead. Its $13.2b of net assets mid-week dwarfed the next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF by nearly 19x! GDX is undisputedly the trading vehicle of choice in this sector, with the world’s biggest gold miners commanding most of its weighting.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Those two largest categories account for over 53% of GDX.
Gold stocks have been correcting hard in recent weeks, exacerbated by gold plunging in the wake of the US elections. Traders view Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs as inflationary, slashing Fed-rate-cut odds. The prospects of higher yields going forward catapulted up the US Dollar Index a massive 2.9% in just six trading days! That shook lose colossal gold-futures selling, hammering gold 6.1% lower since Election Day.
Gold stocks per GDX plunged 11.3% in sympathy, actually making for fairly-mild 1.9x downside leverage to the metal which overwhelmingly drives their profits. Usually GDX tends to amplify material gold moves by 2x to 3x. At worst since late October, gold’s total pullback is running 7.6%. That selloff was overdue and expected. Just a few weeks earlier, I wrote a whole essay analyzing why gold’s selloff risk was high.
At best gold had soared an incredible 35.0% year-to-date, trouncing the S&P 500’s 21.9% gains! That left gold extremely-overbought, and speculators’ gold-futures positioning exceedingly-overextended. So a sentiment-rebalancing selloff on these hyper-leveraged traders normalizing their bets was inevitable. We ratcheted up trailing-stop-loss percentages on our gold-stock trades to prepare, soon realizing big-to-huge gains.
While gold stocks have surged dramatically this year, they still really lagged gold with GDX up 42.2% YTD at best in late October. Gold stocks were starting to catch up with their metal, accelerating towards that 2x-to-3x upside leverage. But GDX’s correction ignited before gold’s, after the world’s largest gold miner reported disappointing and misleading Q3 results. There’s much more below on Newmont’s latest debacle.
Gold stocks’ total correction extended to 19.3% as of mid-week, which is perfectly-normal 2.6x downside leverage to gold. Speculators and investors rushing to buy gold stocks in mid-October as GDX made a dazzling secular breakout and challenged a far-bigger one ought to be licking their chops! Being able to now buy in about 20% cheaper with gold miners printing money in this gold environment is awesome.
For 34 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results from GDX’s 25-largest component stocks. Mostly super-majors, majors, and larger mid-tiers, they dominate this ETF at 85.0% of its total weighting! While digging through quarterlies is a ton of work, understanding the gold miners’ latest fundamentals really cuts through the obscuring sentiment fogs shrouding this sector.
This table summarizes the operational and financial highlights from the GDX top 25 during Q3’24. These gold miners’ stock symbols aren’t all US listings, and are preceded by their rankings changes within GDX over this past year. The shuffling in their ETF weightings reflects shifting market caps, which reveal both outperformers and underperformers since Q3’23. Those symbols are followed by their current GDX weightings.
Next comes these gold miners’ Q3’24 production in ounces, along with their year-over-year changes from the comparable Q3’23. Output is the lifeblood of this industry, with investors generally prizing production growth above everything else. After are the costs of wresting that gold from the bowels of the earth in per-ounce terms, both cash costs and all-in sustaining costs. The latter help illuminate miners’ profitability.
That’s followed by a bunch of hard accounting data reported to securities regulators, quarterly revenues, earnings, operating cash flows, and resulting cash treasuries. Blank data fields mean companies hadn’t disclosed that particular data as of the middle of this week. The annual changes aren’t included if they would be misleading, like comparing negative numbers or data shifting from positive to negative or vice-versa.
In mid-October well before this latest earnings season got underway, I predicted gold miners’ epic quarter in an essay. That concluded “dazzling record gold prices combined with forecast lower mining costs will catapult unit earnings to astounding levels. They are likely to about double to amazing records, extending gold stocks’ massive-earnings-growth streak to five consecutive quarters.” Indeed that mostly came to pass.
Despite their epic quarter, as long-time readers know I’ve never been a fan of most of the world’s largest gold miners that dominate GDX. They perpetually fail to organically grow their production at their vast operational scales, unable to overcome depletion. They’ve mostly been able to boost output only through expensive acquisitions. And paradoxically their mining costs have been rising faster than their smaller peers’.
So for a quarter-century now, our very-profitable subscription-newsletter gold-stock trading has focused on fundamentally-superior smaller mid-tiers and juniors. Operating fewer gold mines often at lower costs, they are better able to consistently grow production through expansions and new mine-builds. Both their earnings growth and stock-price appreciation have long proven way better than GDX’s super-majors and majors...
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DiscoverGold
6 days ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 16, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 25701 and is trading up about 24% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At present, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 25415 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 26188.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 25957.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 21 weeks reaching a high during the week of October 28th at 28018. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of 9.290% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 25415 which still remains 10.29% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to weaken since the previous high at 5074 made 1926 weeks . Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 2 weeks and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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DiscoverGold
7 days ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 16, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 236.5k, down 18.9k.
The week began by gold slicing through its 50-day on Monday. This was then followed by four more sessions of selling, ending the week down 4.6 percent to $2,570/ounce.
A couple of weeks ago, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. Since then, the metal has dropped back-to-back. On October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s eight weeks ago, $2,540s-50s nine weeks ago and $2,440s-50s in August.
Gold bugs can take solace in the fact that $2,540s-50s remains intact, with Thursday’s intraday drop to $2,542 attracting buying interest. The daily has gotten oversold, so a rally is possible. Else, bears will be eyeing $2,440s-50s, with the 200-day at $2,409.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Mining ETF (GDX) Sees Huge Volume Surge
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | November 13, 2024
• Options volume for GDX surpassed 90,000 in the top two contracts
• GDX sports a solid year-to-date lead despite a 10% pullback this quarter
Market volatility stemming from the presidential election, geopolitical conflicts, interest rates, as well as dollar and Treasury yield fluctuations have sent gold prices on a wild ride this year. While the yellow metal was last seen lower amid a surge in the dollar index, it wasn't long ago it was stringing record highs, as traders sought a safe haven from instability.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was last seen 1.3% lower to trade at $35.63, but still sports a 15.1% year-to-date lead after hitting an Oct. 22, four-year high of $44.29. Though the exchange-traded fund (ETF) is on track for its fourth-straight loss, it has maintained its popularity with options traders.
At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), GDX's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 5.55 sits higher than 82% of readings from the past 12 months, indicating calls are getting picked up at a faster-than-usual rate.
Just yesterday, volume at the January, 2025 42- and 47-strike calls -- the top two options contracts -- totaled 91,033. Positions were being opened at the March 21, 2025 38 call, which points to long-term optimism. It's also worth noting that after GDX's 10% quarterly drawdown, the ETF now sports a 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 16.1, deep in "oversold" territory and indicating a short-term bounce could be imminent.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 9, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 255.3k, down 23.3k.
Last week, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. It was a sign of exhaustion, and the metal gave back two percent this week to $2,695/ounce. From gold bugs’ perspective, the good thing is that Thursday’s low of $2,650 was bought, with the 50-day ($2,662) breached intraday but defended by close.
On the daily, it is possible gold rallies a bit more, but it remains way overbought on the weekly.
Before this week’s decline, the yellow metal rallied relentlessly from June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts – $2,610s seven weeks ago, $2,540s-50s eight weeks ago and $2,440s-50s in August. These are all potential supports now.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 2, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27492 and is trading up about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27291 and overhead resistance forming above at 27520. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 28018 to 27369. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 28018 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 28018. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 27762 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 26366 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 2, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 29, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 278.7k, down 17.6k.
Gold just flashed first signs of exhaustion. This week’s weekly gravestone doji showed up after six up weeks in seven, falling 0.2 percent to $2,749/ounce and posting a new high of $2,802 on Wednesday.
The metal has rallied relentlessly since June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts. Six weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, it broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, gold broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
Before the first layer of support at $2,610s gets tested, gold bugs’ mettle is likely to be tested just north of $2,700.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Bull of the Day: Agnico Eagle Mines (AEG)
By: Zacks Investment Research | October 30, 2024
Although it hasn’t received the airtime it deserves, gold prices have been rocketing higher this year. With more new record highs this week, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 by a significant margin year-to-date and since the start of 2023. Not surprisingly, gold miner stocks like Agnico Eagle Mines (AEG) have also performed well this year.
Agnico Eagle Mines has everything a gold investor could ask for, including a rock-solid balance sheet, strong stock price momentum, huge earnings growth forecasts and a reasonable valuation. Furthermore, the stock boasts a top Zacks Rank, significantly increasing the odds of a further near-term rally.
Image Source: TradingView
Powerful Earnings Revision Trend in AEG
As the price of gold rallies, gold mining stocks enjoy immediate expansion in their margins, Agnico Eagle Mines included. Today, AEG has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) rating, reflected by significant revisions higher to its earnings estimates.
Analysts have nearly unanimously upgraded earnings forecasts over the last two months, with FY25 earnings estimates jumping by a hefty 23.4% over the last 60 days. FY24 earnings estimates have also been revised higher by 9.9% and are projected to climb 79.8% YoY to $4.01 per share. Over the next three to five years EPS are expected to grow at an impressive 28.2% annually.
It is also worth noting that the Mining – Gold Industry currently sits in the Top 4% (9 out of 251) of the Zacks Industry Rank, and that the Zacks Earnings ESP is projecting the next earnings period to be analysts estimates by 5.82%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AEG Stock Technical Setup
Rounding the compelling investment opportunity in Agnico Eagle Mines stock is a technical trading setup. Over the last week or so, the price action has been forming a bull flag from which investors can easily measure a trade.
If the stock can trade above the $88.75 level, it would signal a technical breakout. Alternatively, if the stock loses the $86 level of support, it may be worth waiting for another opportunity.
Image Source: TradingView
Should Investors Buy Agnico Eagle Mines Shares?
Agnico Eagle Mines is currently trading at a one year forward earnings multiple 0f 21.6x, which is below the broad market average and well below its 10-year median of 43x. Additionally, with earnings expected to grow 28.2% annually, AEM has an attractive PEG ratio of 0.77, indicating a discount based on the metric.
For investors seeking exposure to the gold market, Agnico Eagle Mines is a powerful way to express the trade. AEG has a reasonable valuation, top Zacks Rank and even pays a 1.8% dividend.
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DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 26, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 296.2k, up 9.8k.
There is no stopping the yellow metal, rallying this week 0.9 percent to $2,755/ounce, tagging $2,773 on Wednesday. This was the third up week in a row – and sixth in last seven.
Gold has rallied strongly since June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts. Five weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, it broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, gold broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
If one were to nitpick, the daily RSI has made lower highs even as gold went on to add $100 in the past month.
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DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 26, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27546 and is trading up about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At present, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27726 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 25027. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 27087.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27378 and overhead resistance forming above at 27633. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 27726, which was up 20 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27726 to 27221. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27726 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27726. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 27474 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
Gold Stocks’ Secular Breakout
By: Adam Hamilton | October 25, 2024
The gold miners’ stocks just achieved a rare secular breakout. This huge technical milestone fueled by record gold levels reflects sector sentiment growing more bullish. That is pushing gold stocks closer to the crucial psychological tipping point where more-mainstream traders increasingly chase their strong gains. Multi-year highs generate broader interest, attracting more capital inflows accelerating gold-stock upside.
The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF has long been gold stocks’ leading sector benchmark and trading vehicle. This was the original pioneering gold-stock ETF, born way back in May 2006. GDX’s first-mover advantage has grown into an insurmountable lead, commanding net assets of $16.8b midweek. That nearly doubles the 13 next-largest gold-stock ETFs’ combined net assets! GDX is this sector’s juggernaut.
It just enjoyed a rather-remarkable nine consecutive trading days of rallying, blasting 13.7% higher in mid-October! That was fueled by a parallel big 5.3% gold surge, which the major gold stocks dominating GDX amplified by a good 2.6x. Historically GDX has usually leveraged material gold moves by 2x to 3x. While certainly an impressive win streak, it was only its last few days that proved important technical milestones.
Gold rapidly surged to extremely-overbought levels in late September, dramatically upping the odds for a rebalancing selloff. I analyzed gold’s high selloff risk in-depth in an early-October essay. That pullback indeed got to work, although it was retarded by soaring geopolitical risks after Iran lobbed hundreds of ballistic missiles into Israel! Still gold retreated a modest 2.4% over a couple weeks into early October.
That dragged GDX a proportional 6.8% lower, for larger 2.9x downside leverage. That selloff started from this sector ETF’s upleg-to-date peak of $41.64, leaving GDX well lower. But gold stocks were quick to claw back their losses, with GDX rallying back to $41.49 last Thursday the 17th. Both levels remained barely decisively above GDX’s last major peak of $40.87 in mid-April 2022, yet still in that resistance zone.
A decisive breakout is exceeding an old closing high by 1%+, which happened on September 24th when GDX closed over $41.28. But technical analysis is subjective, with most support and resistance lines on charts drawn by hand. So from a visual standpoint on a multi-year chart, gold stocks still looked to be near major upper resistance around GDX $41. They could easily still retreat, forming a double topping.
This gold-stock-technicals chart of recent years illuminates that $41 resistance zone. In order for that minor breakout mathematically to become major psychologically, GDX had to blast considerably higher into new chart territory. New highs had to look visually-striking, which finally happened a week ago on Friday the 18th. GDX soared a huge 4.0% higher that day, indisputably achieving a major secular breakout!
It was the best kind too, happening despite no real news. Gold did rally 1.1% to its third record high in a row of $2,721, but there was no Fed-dovish key economic data to drive that. Mounting geopolitical fears heading into a weekend likely played a role, as the world anxiously awaited Israel’s crippling retaliation against Iran for that ballistic-missile barrage. GDX’s big 4.0% up day amplified gold’s by a huge 3.7x.
Precious-metals sentiment lurched sizably to shifting bullish, thanks to gold’s defiant October rally and that big, round, psychologically-important $2,700 level being exceeded. Gold really should have sold off considerably this month. Leading into October, gold was not only extremely-overbought but speculators’ gold-futures longs had hit their 5th-highest levels on record! So massive mean-reversion selling was likely...
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1 month ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 19, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27300 and is trading up about 31% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27378 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 25027. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 27087.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 26947.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 14th at 27378, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27378 to 26544. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27378 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27378. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 26596 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 19, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 286.4k, up 8.3k.
After three tentative weekly candles – shooting star, spinning top and dragonfly doji – gold yet again shone this week, up a solid two percent to $2,730/ounce, which set a fresh high.
The yellow metal has had a powerful rally since June when it tagged $2,305. In between, it enjoyed one after another breakout.
Four weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, it broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
This week’s breakout followed a defense of $2,610s last week.
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1 month ago
Gold-Stock Tipping Point 2
By: Adam Hamilton | October 18, 2024
The gold miners’ stocks look to be getting even closer to a crucial psychological tipping point. After years of being mired in apathy, this small contrarian sector appears poised to finally return to popularity. When traders flock to gold stocks to chase their upside momentum, massive uplegs ensue where doublings-plus aren’t uncommon. And across entire bull markets, total gold-stock gains can exceed an order of magnitude.
Eleven weeks ago, I penned my original gold-stock-tipping-point essay. My thesis then was gold stocks were on the verge of being noticed by much-broader groups of speculators and investors. They would increasingly pile in to ride mounting sector gains, catapulting gold stocks way higher. Gold miners remain seriously undervalued relative to these record prevailing gold prices, they need to mean revert and normalize.
Much has happened in the several months since, making this case even stronger. The day that essay was published, gold and the leading GDX gold-stock ETF were trading at $2,436 and $36.48. Gold’s last nominal record close of $2,465 was seen several weeks earlier, while GDX’s upleg-to-date best then ran $39.28. It really felt like traders’ interest in gold and its miners’ stocks was growing, a very-bullish omen.
While feelings aren’t empirical, decades of experience hones them into valuable indicators. For a quarter-century now, I’ve been a financial-newsletter guy researching, writing about, and actively trading this gold-stock sector. This is my 1,144th weekly web essay since mid-2000, and I’ve written 291 monthly and 1,118 weekly paid-subscription newsletters in that long span! Active real-world gold-stock trading was a big part.
Both newsletters have recommended and realized 1,531 stock trades as of the end of Q3’24. All those including all losers have averaged excellent +16.0% annualized realized gains! That’s roughly double the long-term stock-market average. After spending the vast majority of my professional life deeply immersed in this realm, my experience and knowledge is world-class. Plenty of signs now point to improving psychology.
Chief among them is gold and GDX continuing to power higher on balance despite formidable challenges. Since that original essay, gold has achieved 14 new nominal record closes including midweek’s latest one at $2,673! That’s another big 9.8% rally despite gold recently facing high odds for a considerable selloff to rebalance sentiment and technicals. Strength contrary to probable weakness reveals shifting psychology.
In early October I wrote an entire essay analyzing gold’s high selloff risk. Two dominant factors fueled that, including gold blasting up to extreme overboughtness. That was driven by massive gold-futures buying by speculators, leaving their positioning way-overextended and their likely capital firepower for buying exhausted. Plenty of catalysts loomed that could spawn cascading gold-futures selling slamming gold.
Specs look to the US dollar’s fortunes to guide their wildly-leveraged and super-risky gold-futures trading. And the US Dollar Index in turn is often bullied around by major US economic-data releases. Depending on how they come in relative to economists’ forecasts, they can really move futures-implied expected Fed rate cuts. Those seemed impossibly-high in early August, at 116 basis points in 2024 then another 100bp in 2025!
That was almost nine quarter-point cuts over 16 months, pretty optimistic. While the FOMC did birth this latest cutting cycle with an outsized 50bp slashing in mid-September, those expected Fed rate cuts have indeed retreated on better-than-expected key economic data. Heavy gold-futures selling has often been spawned in recent years on upside surprises in US jobs, CPI inflation, PPI inflation, and retail sales.
All four latest reads proved Fed-hawkish and boosted the US dollar, which should’ve unleashed big gold-futures dumping! September’s nonfarm payrolls soared 254k, massively beating the +150k expected on top of +72k jobs in past-two-month revisions. All four of the September CPI’s key metrics came in 0.1% hotter than forecasts, and two of the four PPI ones printed 0.2% above consensus. These meant slower rate cuts.
Indeed by Wednesday expected Fed rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 had slumped to 45bp more and 99bp. As of midweek, the USDX had surged 3.2% in several weeks which is a big-and-sharp rally for it. Yet during that time with everything aligning out of favor for gold, it still managed to rally 0.4%! While gold did suffer a minor 2.4% pullback into early October, it rapidly rebounded to that latest record close Wednesday.
September retail sales were released Thursday morning before I started writing this essay, also proving a Fed-hawkish upside surprise. So this past month’s major economic data was certainly dollar-bullish and gold-bearish due to deteriorating expected Fed rate cuts. Yet gold powered higher anyway, likely on big buying from Chinese investors, central banks, and Indian brides’ families. Gold is really defying the odds.
Gold’s defiant march to more record highs is putting it on more traders’ radars. Financial-media coverage is becoming more-frequent and more-bullish, building awareness. Even American stock investors, who have mostly ignored gold’s monster 46.9% upleg over this past year, are increasingly nibbling in GLD and IAU gold-ETF shares. While small, their daily gold-bullion-holdings builds on capital inflows have been relentless.
So gold looks to be nearing its own psychological tipping point, where gains accelerate sparking a fear-of-missing-out rush to pile in. Seasonal tailwinds will soon turn favorable again too. Gold tends to suffer a seasonal pullback from late September to late October, before its biggest seasonal rally powers higher into late February. That has averaged 8.4% over 20 of the last 23 years, which were gold’s bull-market ones.
If gold’s early-October pullback low holds and this year’s winter rally merely proves average, gold would shoot over $2,825 in coming months! And as goes gold, so go its miners’ stocks. They ultimately act like leveraged plays on gold, with the majors dominating GDX usually amplifying their metal’s upside by 2x to 3x. Indeed GDX has rallied with gold recently, achieving another bull-market high of $41.64 in late September.
GDX has powered 60.7% higher over this past year, a good upleg. But it remains quite weak relative to gold, with mere 1.3x amplification. That’s way behind historical precedent. Gold’s last similar monster uplegs both peaked in 2020, averaging 41.4% gains. GDX averaged great 105.4% uplegs during those, doublings-plus at 2.5x leverage! GDX should already be up 95% to 140% in today’s monster gold upleg.
So gold stocks have lots more mean-reversion normalization rallying left to do even at today’s gold levels, let alone where this bull is heading. And GDX just has to inch a little higher to achieve a major technical breakout, which will hasten that crucial psychological tipping point arriving. Forging decisively above $42 ought to fuel increasing and enthusiastic financial-media gold-stock coverage, building greed-driven momentum.
When GDX hit $41.64 in late September, those were gold stocks’ best levels in 4.0 years. As I’m writing this draft midday Thursday, GDX is trading even higher at $41.86. The last time GDX closed over $42 was in mid-September 2020, six weeks after a powerful gold-stock upleg catapulted GDX 134.1% higher to $44.48. Exceed that, and this leading gold-stock benchmark will be at its best levels since January 2013!
Traders love chasing winners, and the financial media love to cover them. Decade-plus gold-stock highs less than 9% above midweek levels should be achieved soon, really boosting popular awareness of gold miners’ upside momentum. That dynamic can quickly become self-feeding, ultimately culminating in a popular speculative mania. It really feels like that process is accelerating, that sentiment tipping point is nearing...
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1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 12, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 8, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 278.2k, down 21.8k.
Three weeks ago, in a shooting star week, gold printed $2,709 intraday before heading lower. It has had a powerful rally since June when it tagged $2,305. In between, the yellow metal enjoyed one after another breakout.
Three weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out on September 20; this followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, it broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
This week, after coming under pressure in the first three sessions, bids showed up Thursday at $2,610s, with an intraday low of $2,619, ending the week up 0.3 percent to $2,676/ounce and forming a weekly dragonfly doji. Having defended the first layer of support, gold bugs deserve the benefit of the doubt in the sessions ahead.
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1 month ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 12, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26763 and is trading up about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Factually, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26724 and overhead resistance forming above at 26894. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 27087, which was up 16 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 26678. We are still trading above the Weekly Momentum Indicators so we have not undermined critical support as of yet. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27087 made 2 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 23386 and 27582. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of September 23rd has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 25704 made back during the week of August 19th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of July 15th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1 month ago
Gold Miners’ Epic Quarter
By: Adam Hamilton | October 11, 2024
The gold miners are on the verge of reporting another best quarter ever. Q3’s earnings season ramping up soon will prove epic, fueled by dazzling record gold prices and slightly-lower mining costs. That ought to double sector unit profits, extending gold stocks’ long trend of massive earnings growth. Such fantastic results should increasingly catch fund investors’ attention, with their inflows driving this sector way higher.
Gold stocks remain out of favor, greatly lagging gold’s monster upleg over this past year. This has proven one of gold’s mightiest advances in many years, soaring 46.8% over 11.7 months! Historically larger gold miners dominating the leading GDX gold-stock ETF have seen their stock prices amplify gold uplegs by 2x to 3x. Yet instead of seeing normal 95%- to-140% upleg gains, GDX has merely rallied 60.7% at best!
That very-poor 1.3x upside leverage to gold has been a real kick in the teeth for contrarian speculators and investors. Gold stocks need to way outperform their metal to compensate for the big additional operational, geological, and geopolitical risks they heap on top of gold price trends. Yet so far that sure hasn’t happened in this upleg, leaving traders increasingly disappointed with this lucrative high-potential sector.
Two major factors contributed to this surprising anomaly. First gold-stock sentiment was crushed in mid-2022 and hasn’t recovered. Then the Fed’s most-violent rate-hike cycle ever catapulted the US Dollar Index up an incredible 16.7% in 6.0 months to an extreme 20.4-year secular peak! That spawned colossal gold-futures selling, slamming gold 20.9% lower in 6.6 months. GDX cratered a brutal 46.5% during that!
Second while gold blasted up 26.4% year-to-date, traders have been overwhelmingly distracted by the AI stock bubble. While gold achieved 35 nominal-record closing highs so far this year, the S&P 500 bested that with a whopping 44 of its own! Gold and gold stocks are alternative investments, thriving the most when general stock markets grind lower. Instead they’ve been surging, spinning off vast greed and euphoria.
But sooner or later all that will pass, and gold stocks will be bid way higher to reflect these lofty prevailing gold prices. The gold miners’ phenomenal fundamentals overwhelmingly support this bullish thesis. For 33 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest results reported by GDX’s 25-biggest component stocks. Right after each quarterly earnings season, I write essays explaining how they are performing.
Across individual gold miners, there are always plenty of distorted bottom-line earnings. These include big noncash gains and losses arising from unusual items ranging from acquisitions to impairment charges. But that noise can be distilled out with an excellent proxy for sector unit profits. It simply averages the GDX top 25’s all-in sustaining costs in any quarter, then subtracts them from its average gold price.
These implied per-ounce profits have been skyrocketing, leaving gold stocks deeply undervalued relative to their metal. A year ago in Q3’23, the GDX top 25 reported $622 in unit earnings which soared 94% YoY. Then in Q4’23, those grew again to $659 per ounce which shot up another 42% YoY. That trend persisted in Q1’24, with these major gold miners averaging earning $795 per ounce which powered up 35% YoY.
Then all that accelerated dramatically in the spectacular Q2’24, which I analyzed in depth in a mid-August essay. That quarter’s record average gold price of $2,337 combined with GDX-top-25 AISCs plunging 10.2% YoY to $1,239 catapulted unit earnings to a dazzling record $1,099! That blasted up another 84% YoY. So miners’ last four reported quarters have seen per-ounce profits soar 94%, 42%, 35%, and 84% YoY!
Such explosive profits growth has naturally slammed gold miners’ price-to-earnings ratios dramatically lower, into the teens and even single digits in some cases. With fantastically-bullish fundamentals like this, you’d think traders would be rushing into this high-potential sector. But gold stocks remain mired in apathy, lost in the shadow of this crazy AI stock bubble stealing all the limelight. Yet its days are numbered.
Eventually stock prices always mean revert to some reasonable multiple of underlying corporate earnings. Market-darling AI stocks can’t trade with 60x+ P/Es indefinitely, and good gold stocks can’t remain at sub-15x multiples. Sooner or later some catalyst will spark overdue capital flows to start normalizing all this. It could be the AI stock bubble finally bursting and decisively rolling over, it could prove gold surging even higher.
But maybe the gold miners will stack enough sensational earnings seasons to convince fund managers to return. Their relatively-big buying in this relatively-small sector will drive stock prices way higher, which will eventually fuel greed, euphoria, and maybe even a popular speculative mania. Gold stocks are about to report absolutely-epic Q3 results, their best ever achieved by far! That could prove this sector’s tipping point.
Q3’24’s average gold price soared an amazing 28.6% YoY to a new all-time record $2,477! This is utterly stunning considering just a year ago that highwater mark had been $1,978. Gold’s phenomenal prices last quarter were fueled by major buying from gold-futures speculators, central banks around the world, Chinese investors, and a huge surge in Indian gold imports. I could write entire essays discussing each.
But today realize Q3’s record gold levels have been set in stone, they can’t be revised lower like Biden Administration jobs reports. So the only variable driving sector unit profitability is the GDX top 25’s average all-in sustaining costs. Over the past four quarters they have been trending lower on balance, clocking in at $1,304, $1,317, $1,277, and $1,239 per ounce. That averages $1,284, a conservative baseline.
The majority of these elite major gold miners provide and update AISC guidance throughout the year. And many of them are forecasting higher production and thus lower mining costs in H2’24 compared to H1. Gold mining has massive fixed costs, which growing output spreads across more ounces reducing unit costs. A surprising number of major gold miners continued guiding to considerably-lower costs in Q3 and Q4.
The world’s largest gold miner and GDX’s biggest component by far with a huge 14.6% weighting is a great example. In Q1 and Q2, Newmont reported AISCs of $1,439 and $1,562 per ounce. That averaged a little over $1,500 in H1. Yet in late July NEM reaffirmed its full-year-2024 AISC guidance at just $1,400 per ounce. Unlike most of its peers, Newmont didn’t even give a range. And its 2024 output was H2-weighted.
Back in late February this super-major forecast 47% of this year’s production would come in H1, then 53% in H2. That alone is going to force AISCs lower. To hit that $1,400 AISC target for all of 2024, Q3’s and Q4’s would have to average just $1,300! That is sharply lower from Q1’s and Q2’s, and would make for a big improvement. We are talking about H2 AISCs plunging 13%+ from H1 levels, which would be amazing.
While I really doubt NEM will achieve such low Q3 and Q4 AISCs, they will definitely materially improve. And there are plenty of other GDX-top-25 majors with similar much-better-mining-cost forecasts for H2 compared to H1. Collectively these elite gold miners averaged $1,258 AISCs in H1’24. It seems pretty conservative to imagine them improving 2%ish in this soon-to-be-reported Q3, which would be near $1,230.
We won’t know what the actual average is until Q3 earnings season ends in mid-November, after which I’ll write another essay fully analyzing those collective results. But if GDX-top-25 AISCs come in around $1,230, subtracted from Q3’s phenomenal $2,477 average gold price that yields implied sector profits of $1,247 per ounce! That would crush Q2’24’s previous record of $1,099, and skyrocket over 100% YoY!
You’d sure think a doubling in gold miners’ already-massive profits would impress some fund managers, motivating them to add gold-stock positions. But even if GDX-top-25 Q3 AISCs come in way higher for some reason, profitability is still going to soar. Even if those average AISCs prove much worse up near $1,350, Q3’s unit earnings would still soar 81% YoY to a new record $1,127. Those profits will prove epic.
Crazily due to this AI stock bubble and funds dangerously concentrated in a handful of wildly-overcrowded AI plays, American stock investors’ overall allocations to gold are effectively zero. Entering October, the S&P 500 stocks collectively commanded a staggering $51,247b market capitalization. Yet the combined holdings of the world-dominant American GLD and IAU gold ETFs were merely worth $106b that same day.
That implies a trivial 0.2% gold allocation, despite gold’s record-shattering year! That should be 5% to 10%, since gold has always been an essential portfolio diversifier. Even if it grows to 1%, gold is heading way higher. And fund managers’ allocations to gold miners’ stocks are similarly-tiny. At some point gold miners’ earnings will grow so fat and rich that their stocks can no longer be ignored, and capital inflows will soar.
While the major gold stocks’ imminent Q3 results are going to be jaw-droppingly awesome, this sector does face a near-term speedbump. Gold stocks leverage gold, and it faces high selloff risks during coming weeks. My essay last week analyzed this in depth. Gold simply blasted too far too fast to extremely-overbought levels driven by heavy gold-futures buying, leaving speculators’ positioning extreme.
But despite gold growing really overextended, gold stocks are not since they have lagged their metal so much this year. This chart divides GDX by its own 200-day moving average, creating an overbought-and-oversold indicator I call the Relative GDX. This renders gold-stock moves in constant-percentage terms around a 200dma flattened to horizontal at 1.00x. Over time this rGDX indicator tends to form trading ranges.
The current one based on the last five years of data runs from extremely-oversold levels under 0.75x GDX’s 200dma to extremely-overbought ones over 1.30x. Unlike its metal, GDX still hasn’t yet reached the latter warning levels in this year-long upleg! At the major gold stocks’ latest interim high achieved in late September, the rGDX was merely running 1.249x! Gold stocks don’t need to fully amplify gold’s selloff.
Of course they will to some extent, as they are leveraged plays on the metal they mine. At worst since its latest interim high, gold has pulled back 2.4% as of midweek. GDX did fall 6.8% in that span, making for 2.9x downside leverage on the higher side of that usual 2x-to-3x range. But that ought to moderate since gold stocks remain really undervalued after seriously lagging gold’s powerful advance, as precedent shows.
Gold’s last healthy mid-upleg pullback ran from late May to early June, when it dropped 5.7% rebalancing sentiment. During that span gold bled off excessive greed, GDX only retreated 10.0% making for mere 1.8x downside leverage! Any coming gold-stock downside on another gold pullback should prove relatively-muted as well. The gold stocks never challenged extreme overboughtness, and popular greed never flared.
If gold pulling back forces a gold-stock selloff ahead of or into Q3 earnings, that should prove an excellent buying opportunity. Mid-upleg pullbacks offer the best buy-relatively-low opportunities within ongoing bull-market uplegs. We ratcheted up trailing stop losses on our newsletter gold-stock trades preparing for a retreat, and I’m researching fundamentally-superior mid-tiers and juniors to buy into as it runs its course...
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2 months ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 5, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26678 and is trading up about 28% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Factually, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26653 and overhead resistance forming above at 26947. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 27087, which was up 16 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 16 weeks reaching a high during the week of September 23rd at 26386. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a reasonable move of 2.307% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 26462 which still remains 14.84% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27087 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 23206 and 27368. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of September 23rd has exceeded the previous high of 25704 made back during the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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2 months ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 28, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26681 and is trading up about 28% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Currently, this market has been rising for 10 months going into September suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27087 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 24038. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 25704.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26510 and overhead resistance forming above at 26894. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 27087, which was up 16 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27087 to 26386. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27087 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27087. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 26839 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 25445 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 21 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 22840 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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2 months ago
Gold Stocks Forge Higher
By: Adam Hamilton | September 27, 2024
The gold miners’ stocks are forging higher, just achieving their best levels in four years. While advancing, their upside progress has certainly been labored. Given gold’s monster upleg and dazzling record highs, gold stocks should be much higher. And their record profits and epic earnings growth sure support way-better stock prices. The main impediment is traders’ apathetic sector sentiment, but that is starting to shift.
The leading GDX gold-stock index has surged 7.2% at best this month, closing at $41.41 Tuesday. That proved major gold stocks’ highest levels in 3.9 years. And if GDX can best the $44.48 it hit a few months earlier in August 2020, we’d be looking at 11.7-year secular highs! Since early October 2023, this GDX upleg has powered up 59.8%. That’s trouncing broader stock markets, with the S&P 500 up 34.5% in that span.
With great performance like that over this past year, you’d think gold stocks would be growing popular. But they really aren’t. Mainstream investors still aren’t the least-bit interested in chasing this sector’s strong upside momentum. They’re still enamored with the AI stock bubble, which continues to steal all the market limelight. And contrarian investors like me who follow gold stocks are pretty disappointed in them.
Gold stocks are ultimately leveraged plays on the metal they mine. The gold-mining business heaps big additional operational, geological, and geopolitical risks on top of gold price trends. So gold stocks really need to outperform gold to justify deploying capital in them. Historically the major-dominated GDX has generally leveraged material gold moves by 2x to 3x. That kind of amplification makes gold stocks worth owning.
Unfortunately they’ve way underperformed long decades of precedent over this past year. GDX’s 59.8% upleg sounds good, but gold itself has enjoyed a monster 46.3% upleg in that timeframe! That means the major gold stocks have only clocked in with 1.3x upside leverage to their metal. At that usual 2x to 3x, this GDX upleg should already be up 93% to 139% given gold’s massive gains! Gold stocks are way behind.
That doesn’t mean they won’t catch up with gold, which can happen fast. Compared to the vast pools of stock-market capital, this contrarian sector is vanishingly-small. So even tiny shifts in capital flows can catapult gold stocks far higher in short order. During gold’s last 40%+ upleg cresting in August 2020, that last time GDX was higher, GDX had rocketed up 134.1% in only 4.8 months! Gold stocks aren’t out of the race.
After actively trading this high-potential contrarian sector publicly for a quarter-century now, I’ve seen plenty of times where gold stocks were mostly ignored. Sooner or later investors always return, resulting in huge gains. Doublings in under a year aren’t uncommon, gold stocks can really multiply wealth when they are running! Another doubling or more is coming as gold stocks mean revert way higher to reflect gold.
That will be driven by a major bullish sentiment shift, resulting from gold’s massive gains and impressive parade of nominal record highs. The gold miners’ colossal earnings generated at these high gold prices fundamentally justify way-higher stock prices. Before we delve into all that, this chart puts GDX technical action in recent years into perspective. The gold stocks’ latest secular high is marginal, they are forging ahead.
Interestingly despite vexingly lagging gold this past year, gold-stock doublings are still a thing. Since this secular gold bull was born in late September 2022, GDX has powered up 89.3%. That compares to gold’s +64.0% at best in that span, making for modestly-better 1.4x upside leverage. Yet driven by gold-stock sentiment, sector performance can turn on a dime. GDX would only need a couple months to fully catch up.
The dominant driver of gold-stock psychology is how gold is faring. And that is awesome right now, achieving five new record closes in August followed by another seven so far in September! Closing way up near $2,662 Tuesday, such fantastic gold levels were almost unimaginable just one year ago. The longer and higher gold rallies, the more investors and speculators will want to chase it including with gold stocks.
New record highs in particular fuel virtuous circles of buying. The higher gold goes, the more the financial media covers it and the more bullish their coverage gets. That elevates gold and by extension its miners’ stocks onto more investors’ radars, including fund managers. The more buying they do, the more gold and gold-stock gains mount. That generates more bullish commentary attracting in widening circles of investors...
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