DiscoverGold
8 hours ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 6, 2024
The NY Gold Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 3 days closing above the previous session's high by 0.97%. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 20 days. Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 2.81% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 24262, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Moreover, a lower opening and a penetration of today's low of 23560 with a closing beneath this level would suggest today's high will stand temporarily.
Our Stochastics are all still pointing upward while our internal momentum models have also remained in a bullish posture.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 23737.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of June 3rd, which has been a move of 4.222%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 20th has exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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trunkmonk
1 day ago
weirdo wooly on SI thinks DOW going way above 45k, either he is clueless, or he knows it wont happen until it drops at least 30% from here. the Hindenberg Omen, and about half dozen other indicators, says it over, and of course DOW and other indices can go higher from here, but HO is flawless, much better than his archaic indicators.
Trillions going into gold, from markets that only a retail fool would get into, cause they are the ones propping it up, while smart money moves out.
DiscoverGold
3 days ago
Bull of the Day: Barrick Gold (GOLD)
By: Zacks Investment Research | July 3, 2024
Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock Barrick Gold (GOLD) isa Canadian gold mining company. Barrick is among the top gold producers globally, and the company has mining projects and exploration locations across five continents. GOLD management is focused on maximizing the benefits of rising metal prices by meeting operations and financial targets. As you might expect, the stock is highly correlated to its underlying commodity, gold. As such, I will first cover the bullish thesis behind gold.
Gold Bull Thesis
Inflation Hedge
Investors see gold as a hedge against inflation. The U.S. faces a mindboggling deficit of $34 trillion and is proliferating each day. As the 2024 election approaches, investors must accept the fact that Biden and Trump, the two overwhelming frontrunners, are not known for their fiscal conservatism. Furthermore, even if spending tapers, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by year-end, and the budget deficit will remain at nosebleed levels. Interest payments are swelling, ranking fourth in spending (only behind Social Security, Medicare, & Defense). In other words, don’t expect a budget surplus any time soon – the last surplus for the federal government was in 2001!
U.S. Sanctions & BRICS Demand
BRICS is an acronym for an association of five major emerging national economies- which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, & the UAE have been added to the original BRICS recently) – known for their significant influence on regional and global affairs. BRICS was formed to promote cooperation and collaboration among its member countries, which are major emerging economies, to address common challenges, foster economic development, and enhance their collective influence on the global stage. By working together, BRICS seeks to strengthen their positions in international institutions, promote inclusive development, and contribute to global economic governance reforms.
How does the BRICS impact the price of gold? The U.S. has levied severe sanctions on BRICS members such as Russia and newcomer Iran. With Russia locked in a multi-year conflict with Ukraine (with no end in sight) and Iranian leadership funding proxy wars on U.S. troops globally, the two countries are essentially barred from using the U.S. dollar and are forced to seek alternatives. To “de-dollarize” and provide an alternative to the U.S. dollar (which is no longer backed by gold), the BRICS countries have been dramatically increasing their purchases of gold on the international market – a trend that should last for years to come and put a floor under gold and gold proxies like the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX).
Costco Sparks Retail Gold Demand
Costco Wholesale ((COST Quick QuoteCOST - Free Report) ) is one of the top discount retailers in the United States and worldwide. What makes Costco so unique? The company offers dirt cheap prices to those consumers who are willing to purchase a Costco membership and buy in bulk. By moving a lot of products, COST can keep prices low on everything from gasoline to televisions to furniture. Though COST is a discount retailer, it offers high-end products to its loyal customer base, such as expensive and difficult-to-source cognac, for example.
In the second half of 2023, Costco began to offer gold bullion bars at competitive price levels. The addition of gold bars to Costco Wholesale locations has been breathtaking. Because of its solid reputation and competitive pricing, COST reportedly rakes in ~$200 million a month in revenue from gold bullion alone. With such success, it is not out of the question that other retailers follow suit and the consumer gold market snowballs, driving gold prices higher.
Barrick Bull Thesis
M&A Sparks Growth
Barrick has been leveraging mergers and acquisitions to become an industry leading gold company. The company now owns five of the industry’s top ten tier one gold assets. Furthermore, GOLD has the lowest total cash cost position among senior gold peers mixed with high-quality gold reserves. Barrick also has an extensive regional presence across many of the world’s most prolific gold districts.
Robust EPS Estimates and the Tendency to Beat the Street
Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest that Barrick will grow EPS at a healthy double-digit rate over the next two years.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Meanwhile, the company has delivered positive EPS surprises for four straight quarters, with an average surprise of 18%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bullish Technical Set-Up
GOLD is forming a bullish monthly pennant. Investors should look for the stock to clear last month’s doji (indecision) candle.
Image Source: TradingView
Bottom Line
Through its aggressive M&A strategy, Barrick Gold is well-positioned to take advantage of soaring gold demand and government spending.
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DiscoverGold
6 days ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 29, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 246.2k, up 3.1k.
Once again, $2,300 drew bids, with Wednesday touching $2,305 intraday. By the end of the week, gold was up 0.4 percent for the week to $2,340/ounce.
Gold bugs have defended $2,300 for just over two months now. The metal came under pressure after recording a fresh high of $2,449 on April 12th. On May 20th, a new high of $2,454 was hit. Soon after, sellers appeared, but they have not been able to push the metal under $2,300.
From the bulls’ perspective, they have successfully held $2,300, but have been unable to use it as a launching pad for a new rally. The 50-day ($2,352) is beginning to roll over, with gold closing under the average in 14 out of the last 15 sessions.
Gold has come a long way since last October when it ticked $1,824 (was $1,996 this February) and cannot afford to lose $2,300.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 29, 2024
This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened higher and closed higher. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 23506. Therefore, this market has rallied over the past 15 trading sessions and there is a potential to move up for another 2 daysNevertheless, this market remains well above all seven of our intial support levels. Nonetheless, the market remains neutral on our system indicators.
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 24067. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23373 and overhead resistance forming above at 23497. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of June 3rd at 23042, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of May 20th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 23312. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 17th reaching 23826 failed to exceed the previous high of 24542 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only four weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23042. Additional support is to be found at 23263. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
3 Gold Stocks to Watch Ahead of Inflation Data
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | June 26, 2024
• The PCE index for June could influence interest rates and gold prices
• The PCE price index is due out later this week
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) -- also known as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge -- for June is due out later this week. Investors will be eyeing the data for insight into the central bank's timeline of interest rate decisions, with many still hoping for at least one rate cut this year. Some officials are hesitant, however, as inflation remains high.
Given the impact of interest rates on gold prices, which are already near record highs, now is a great time to check in with three key industry players: Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:GOLD), Royal Gold Inc (NASDAQ:RGLD), and Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM).
GOLD is up 0.6% to trade at $16.70 at last check, after bouncing off long-term support at the $16 level. The security isn't too far off from its April 12, 52-week high of $18.94, despite recent pressure at the $17 region. In the past nine months, the stock added 14.2%.
Last seen up 1.6% to trade at $125.10, RGLD is today testing a resistance at its 20-day moving average, which has been in place since late May. The $120 level contained the stock's pullback from its May 21 52-week high of $134.56, after providing a floor back in March and April. Shares amassed a 11.1% lead in the last 12 months, but are close to breakeven in 2024.
NEM is down 1.2% to trade at $41.40 at last check. The security has been trading above the 20-day moving average -- which is ready to contain today's losses -- since late March, after gapping to a Feb. 28, roughly six-year low of $29.43. NEM is flat for the year and in the last 12 months.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 22, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23312 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23351 and support forming below at 23202. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of June 3rd, which has been a move of 3.402%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 20th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 18 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 15, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 233.9k, down 3.4k.
Last Friday, after hugging the average for 10 consecutive sessions, gold sliced through the 50-day. This week, it remained under the average in all five sessions, with attempts to reclaim in on Wednesday unsuccessful. That said, the metal ($2,349/ounce) is not that far away from the average at $2,358, and there is room to rally on the daily. For this, defense of $2,300 is a must for gold bugs. Else, the weekly can take over.
Gold has come a long way since last October when it ticked $1,824 (was $1,996 this February). It came under pressure after it set a new high of $2,454 on May 20th.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 15, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23491 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Immediately, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23373 and overhead resistance forming above at 23542. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of June 3rd, which has been a move of 2.369%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 20th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23263. Additional support is to be found at 23006. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 18 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 8, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 4, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 237.3k, up 717.
After essentially hugging the 50-day for 10 consecutive sessions, gold sliced through the average on Friday. For the week, it declined 0.9 percent to $2,325/ounce. A loss of $2,300 – which seems imminent in the sessions ahead – will open the door toward horizontal support at $2,240s.
Earlier, gold printed a fresh high of $2,454 on May 20th before going the other way. The metal has come a long way. Last October, it ticked $1,824 and was at $1,996 this February. It is healthy to digest these gains by unwinding the overbought condition gold is in – the weekly in particular.
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DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 8, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23250 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Presently, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23351 and support forming below at 22943. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 23338. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 20th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 18 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 1, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 236.6k, up 6.8k.
Gold was up 0.5 percent for the week but could have done better. At Tuesday’s high, gold rallied as high as $2,386 but finished the week at $2,346/ounce. The metal has essentially gone sideways the last six sessions just above the 50-day ($2,335).
It increasingly feels like gold is taking a breather before beginning a process of digesting the recent gains. Last October, the yellow metal ticked $1,824 and was at $1,996 this February. On May 20th, gold reached $2,454.
Once the 50-day gives way, there is decent support at $2,240s.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 1, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23458 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Up to now, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 23490 and support forming below at 23405. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 14 weeks reaching a high during the week of May 20th at 23263. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a sharp move of 4.905% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 19964 as it has fallen back reaching only 23338 which still remains 16.90% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 20th has exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23006. Additional support is to be found at 23046. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 18 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Stocks Catching Up
By: Adam Hamilton | May 31, 2024
After getting off to a slow start in this upleg, gold miners’ stocks are beginning to catch up with their metal. Gold stocks lagged dreadfully early on, but are increasingly outperforming in gold’s remarkable breakout surge of recent months. These mounting gold-stock gains are boosting bullish sentiment, attracting in more traders accelerating the upside. This virtuous circle of capital inflows still has a long way to run.
If gold stocks can’t leverage gold’s gains, they aren’t worth owning. While miners have high potential to soar with their metal, they bear big additional risks. Those include all kinds of operational, geological, regulatory, and geopolitical challenges and problems. And they are all heaped on top of the biggest risk of all, gold price trends! Yet that’s the only risk in gold bullion, so miners’ stocks really need to outperform.
If they don’t, speculators and investors are much better off sticking to gold itself. Historically the leading GDX gold-stock ETF has amplified material gold moves by 2x to 3x. This range’s lower end is probably the minimum acceptable to compensate traders for gold stocks’ big additional risks. And the upper end is where this high-flying sector can quickly multiply wealth. Unfortunately much of gold’s latest upleg saw neither.
This mighty upleg was born in early October at a deep low near $1,820. Gold V-bounced sharply out of that anomalous nadir on heavy gold-futures short-covering buying. By early December gold had already surged 13.8% to $2,071, its first record close in fully 3.3 years! Yet despite the growing excitement and bullishness that generated, GDX’s parallel early-upleg gains merely ran 22.8% making for weak 1.7x leverage.
After hitting a second marginally-higher record in late December, gold rolled over into a pullback. That really proved mild, with gold slumping just 4.2% at worst into mid-February. Yet confidence remained so darned low in gold stocks that GDX collapsed 19.1% on that, for horrendous 4.6x downside leverage! Then even though gold soon rebounded 2.1% by late February, GDX ground another 0.4% lower to $25.79.
Shockingly that was marginally under early October’s $25.91 when this upleg was born! Gold’s young upleg remained strong then, still up 11.7%. But the major gold stocks of GDX somehow still edged down 0.5% in that entire span. This sector was a total disaster, not only not leveraging gold but completely ignoring a strong upleg! That miserable anomaly was murder on sentiment, leaving bearishness running rampant.
I wrote an essay on gold stocks languishing that very week, concluding then “These seriously-oversold gold stocks riddled with capitulatory bearishness is an anomaly that will prove short-lived. They are due to soon mean revert sharply higher with gold. ... gold’s bull advance will soon resume on big gold-futures long buying. Incredibly all that fueling gold’s young upleg has been reversed, fully reloading spec-long buying.”
I continued, “After similar past excessively-bearish longs, mean-reversion buying has catapulted gold about 12% higher in roughly six weeks. The battered gold stocks will fly as that drives gold deep into record territory.” I caught a lot of flak for that hardcore contrarian essay, which used this same chart. At that time, GDX was way down at its latest deep low labeled here “Crazily Retreats to Pre-Gold-Upleg Lows”.
With gold stocks at absurd lows relative to gold then, we were aggressively adding cheap trades to fill up our newsletter trading books. All that was a great call, as what happened since proved. We didn’t have to wait long either. As March dawned, a top Fed official gave a speech hinting at monetizing more US Treasuries. That indeed triggered epic gold-futures long buying, and gold was quickly off to the races again.
Speculators’ gold-futures holdings are only published weekly in the famous Commitments of Traders reports. In the CoT week alone straddling that Fed surprise, gold rocketed a monster 4.9% higher! The specs bought an astounding 55.0k long contracts, the fourth highest on record out of all 1,314 CoT weeks since early 1999 then! GDX blasted up 10.2% during that CoT week, returning to normal 2.1x leverage...
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1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 25, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 229.8k, up 25.3k.
Non-commercials raised net longs in gold futures to the highest since April 2022. They were probably lured into the trade by the metal’s recent strength. This month, gold rallied from $2,285 on the 3rd to $2,454 on the 20th, with the latter a fresh record, surpassing the recent all-time high of $2,449 posted on April 12th.
However, gold bugs were unable to latch on to the 20th (this Monday) high. By the end of the week, the yellow metal gave back 3.4 percent to $2,335/ounce.
More weakness probably lies ahead, particularly if the bulls are unable to defend the 50-day moving average at $2,319. There is decent support at $2,240s.
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1 month ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 25, 2024
Next Monday is Memorial Day, which is a holiday in the United States. NY Gold Futures closed today at 23345 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Presently, this market has been rising for 6 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24542 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 22491. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's close of 23029.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23387 and support forming below at 23182. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 29th at 22852, which was down 3 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 8th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24542 to 23263. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 20th reaching 24542 has exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. We have seen a rally thus far from the last low of 22852 for the past 3 weeks. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune, however, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 22852. Resistance is to be found starting at 23402. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 20030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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1 month ago
Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q1’24 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton | May 24, 2024
The mid-tier and junior gold miners in this sector’s sweet spot for upside potential recently wrapped up their latest earnings season. These fundamentally-superior smaller gold producers delivered big last quarter, reporting spectacular results. The potent combination of record gold prices, lower mining costs, and better production fueled some of their richest profits ever. Yet mid-tiers still remain way undervalued.
The leading mid-tier-gold-stock benchmark is the GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF. With $5.5b in net assets mid-week, it remains the second-largest gold-stock ETF after its big brother GDX. That is dominated by far-larger major gold miners, though there is much overlap between these ETFs’ holdings. Still misleadingly named, GDXJ is overwhelmingly a mid-tier gold-stock ETF with juniors having little weighting.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Today only one of GDXJ’s 25 biggest holdings is a true junior!
Its Q1 production is highlighted in blue in the table below. Juniors not only mine less than 75k ounces per quarter, but their gold output generates over half their quarterly revenues. That excludes streaming and royalty companies that purchase future gold output for big upfront payments used to finance mine-builds, and primary silver miners producing byproduct gold. But mid-tiers often make better investments than juniors.
These gold miners dominating GDXJ offer a unique mix of sizable diversified production, excellent output-growth potential, and smaller market capitalizations ideal for outsized gains. Mid-tiers are less risky than juniors, while amplifying gold uplegs much more than majors. Our newsletter trading books are now filled with fundamentally-superior mid-tiers and juniors, smaller gold miners which we’ve long specialized in at Zeal.
Mid-tier gold-stock outperformance accelerates as major gold uplegs mature, increasingly attracting more traders to bid up stock prices. That’s finally starting to happen again as gold-stock sentiment shifts back to bullish. Gold’s driving upleg has powered 33.2% higher at best since early October. The major gold stocks represented by GDX hit a new +44.5% highwater mark midweek, for meager 1.3x upside leverage to gold.
Historically major gold stocks tend to amplify material gold moves by 2x to 3x, with that upside leverage mounting later in uplegs. That process is underway, as since mid-February GDX’s gains have outpaced gold’s by 2.0x. The mid-tiers of GDXJ lagged their larger peers for much of this upleg, as traders hadn’t started warming to this sector. But GDXJ’s total upleg gains grew to 52.3% this week, pulling ahead of GDX.
This smaller-gold-stock outperformance should continue expanding on balance. Fundamentally-superior mid-tiers’ gains during major gold uplegs surge way ahead of the majors’, sometimes even doubling them! The longer gold and gold stocks rally, the more bullish speculators and investors wax on them, the more capital they deploy to chase those gains, the more mid-tiers’ stock prices accelerate way ahead of larger miners’.
For 32 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results from GDXJ’s 25-largest component stocks. Mostly mid-tiers, they now account for 66.0% of this ETF’s total weighting. While digging through quarterlies is a ton of work, understanding smaller gold miners’ latest fundamentals really cuts through the obscuring sentiment fogs shrouding this sector. This research is essential.
This table summarizes the GDXJ top 25’s operational and financial highlights during Q1’24. These gold miners’ stock symbols aren’t all US listings, and are preceded by their rankings changes within GDXJ over this past year. The shuffling in their ETF weightings reflects shifting market caps, which reveal both outperformers and underperformers since Q1’23. Those symbols are followed by their recent GDXJ weightings.
Next comes these gold miners’ Q1’24 production in ounces, along with their year-over-year changes from the comparable Q1’23. Output is the lifeblood of this industry, with investors generally prizing production growth above everything else. After are the costs of wresting that gold from the bowels of the earth in per-ounce terms, both cash costs and all-in sustaining costs. The latter help illuminate miners’ profitability.
That’s followed by a bunch of hard accounting data reported to securities regulators, quarterly revenues, earnings, operating cash flows, and resulting cash treasuries. Blank data fields mean companies hadn’t disclosed that particular data as of the middle of this week. The annual changes aren’t included if they would be misleading, like comparing negative numbers or data shifting from positive to negative or vice-versa.
The mid-tier gold miners’ overall Q1’24 performance again proved spectacular! These sweet-spot-for-upside smaller gold stocks slashed mining costs while boosting their production. Those strong operations combined with record prevailing gold prices fueled another massive per-ounce earnings jump, the fourth consecutive quarter of those! Last quarter was among the best mid-tiers ever reported, impressively bullish.
Production growth trumps everything else as the primary mission for gold miners. Higher outputs boost operating cash flows which help fund mine expansions, builds, and purchases, fueling virtuous circles of growth. Mining more gold also boosts profitability, lowering unit costs by spreading big fixed operational expenses across more ounces. But for the first time in eight quarters, the GDXJ top 25’s output shrunk!
They collectively mined 3,692k ounces of gold in Q1’24, which slipped 0.8% YoY. But that is due solely to composition changes among these elite ranks. Four stocks surged dramatically over this past year to enter the GDXJ top 25, displacing four other stocks. Among the ascenders is Aya Gold & Silver, a small silver miner that produces no gold. That elbowed Lundin Gold to 26th place, which mined 112k ounces in Q1.
Replacing a producer with a non-producer skewed overall output lower. Had LUG been included instead of AYA, the GDXJ top 25’s aggregate output last quarter would’ve climbed 2.2% YoY to 3,803k ounces! That’s pretty impressive, much better than the GDX-top-25 majors’ 0.6%-YoY shrinkage I analyzed in an essay on their latest results last week. But both these elite mid-tiers’ and majors’ production is still lagging.
Every quarter the World Gold Council publishes fantastic Gold Demand Trends reports, containing the best-available global gold supply-and-demand data. The recent Q1’24 edition revealed total worldwide mine production grew 4.4% YoY. The GDXJ top 25 would’ve even bested that if not for output shortfalls in just two of its larger producers, B2Gold and Endeavour Mining. But those were both expected last quarter.
BTG suffered a permitting delay for a sizable new gold project in Mali, so it has guided 2024 to midpoint production around 900k ounces. That would make for full-year shrinkage of 15.2%. But with that project and another new mine coming online in 2025, next year is already forecast to see production surge 21.1% to a record 1,090k-ounce midpoint. So this year is a temporary lull for B2Gold before growth resumes.
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2 months ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 19, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 204.5k, up 4.9k.
Gold rallied for a second week in a row, up 1.8 percent this week. The mettle has been rallying since May 3rd when it ticked $2,285 intraday. As a matter of fact, this week represents a new closing high of $2,417 – just ahead of $2,414 recorded four weeks prior. Back then, gold had just printed a new intraday high of $2,449, which occurred on April 12th, but the session reversed hard to close at $2,361.
Kudos to gold bugs for having rallied the metal back to those highs. The action after that high lasting five weeks now qualifies for sideways congestion, giving the bulls another opportunity to break out.
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2 months ago
Gold Miners’ Q1’24 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton | May 17, 2024
The major gold miners just wrapped up another quarterly earnings season, reporting great results. Sector unit profits continued blasting higher on stable production, lower mining costs, and record prevailing gold prices. Yet individually plenty of majors still struggled with rising expenses or lower output. So deploying capital in miners to leverage gold’s remarkable breakout requires handpicking fundamentally-superior stocks.
The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s dominant benchmark. Birthed way back in May 2006, GDX has parlayed its first-mover advantage into an insurmountable lead. Its $13.9b of net assets mid-week dwarfed the next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF by nearly 28x! GDX is undisputedly the trading vehicle of choice in this sector, with the world’s biggest gold miners commanding most of its weighting.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Those two largest categories account for fully half of GDX.
GDX’s Q1 performance was poor, merely edging up 2.0% despite gold powering 7.6% higher. Normally the major gold miners amplify material gold moves by 2x to 3x, so their stocks should’ve surged 15% to 23% last quarter! Traders have been slow to warm to this sector, as it languished out of favor for years. Recent months’ euphoric stock-market bubble also overshadowed gold, stealing most of markets’ limelight.
But GDX’s dismal and super-anomalous 0.3x upside leverage to gold in Q1 has passed. Despite gold’s healthy and necessary high consolidation over this past month, the major gold stocks just hit a new upleg high mid-week. GDX has soared 39.2% since late February, amplifying gold’s parallel 17.4% gain by 2.3x! Already back into normal territory, the majors’ upside leverage to gold is dramatically mean reverting.
Gold’s recent nominal-record-high streaks are winning much-more bullish financial-media coverage, so traders are increasingly noticing and chasing. Q1’s earnings season had a great example, as the world’s largest gold miner Newmont reported its latest results. Despite that being the only gold stock included in the flagship S&P 500 benchmark index, normally institutional investors still don’t follow NEM enough to care.
Yet that day its stock rocketed 12.5% higher on that Q1 report! NEM’s gains dragged the entire GDX up a big 3.7%, despite gold only climbing 0.6% that day. But considered in proper comparable context, those Newmont Q1 results actually proved weak as I’ll explain below. Yet fund managers finally starting to pay attention to gold and gold stocks again flooded in anyway. Sentiment is definitely improving in this sector!
For 32 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results from GDX’s 25-largest component stocks. Mostly super-majors, majors, and larger mid-tiers, they dominate this ETF at 86.0% of its total weighting! While digging through quarterlies is a ton of work, understanding the gold miners’ latest fundamentals really cuts through the obscuring sentiment fogs shrouding this sector.
This table summarizes the operational and financial highlights from the GDX top 25 during Q1’24. These gold miners’ stock symbols aren’t all US listings, and are preceded by their rankings changes within GDX over this past year. The shuffling in their ETF weightings reflects shifting market caps, which reveal both outperformers and underperformers since Q1’23. Those symbols are followed by their current GDX weightings.
Next comes these gold miners’ Q1’24 production in ounces, along with their year-over-year changes from the comparable Q1’23. Output is the lifeblood of this industry, with investors generally prizing production growth above everything else. After are the costs of wresting that gold from the bowels of the earth in per-ounce terms, both cash costs and all-in sustaining costs. The latter help illuminate miners’ profitability.
That’s followed by a bunch of hard accounting data reported to securities regulators, quarterly revenues, earnings, operating cash flows, and resulting cash treasuries. Blank data fields mean companies hadn’t disclosed that particular data as of the middle of this week. The annual changes aren’t included if they would be misleading, like comparing negative numbers or data shifting from positive to negative or vice-versa.
A few weeks ago as this latest earnings season was just getting underway, I wrote an essay previewing likely Q1’24 results. I concluded “...the major gold miners will soon report fantastic Q1 results. Despite higher mining costs likely in the usual Q1 production ebb, record average gold prices will still make for fat unit profits.” That proved true, although digging into the actual quarterlies revealed some surprises like usual.
Production growth trumps everything else as the primary mission for gold miners. Higher outputs boost operating cash flows which help fund mine expansions, builds, and purchases, fueling virtuous circles of growth. Mining more gold also boosts profitability, lowering unit costs by spreading big fixed operational expenses across more ounces. The GDX top 25’s collective Q1 output slipped 0.6% YoY to 7,999k ounces.
That was the fifth quarter in row these major gold miners failed to grow their production. Operating at large scales, they simply can’t find enough new gold to overcome relentless depletion. These bigger gold miners really underperformed their smaller peers last quarter. According to the World Gold Council’s new Q1’24 Gold Demand Trends report, global gold mine production actually grew an impressive 4.4% YoY in Q1!
And the GDX top 25’s production would’ve been even worse if not for Newmont’s soaring 32.3% YoY to a huge 1,680k ounces! That’s the reason institutional investors bid up NEM’s stock 12.5% that day its Q1 results were released. While sounding amazing, that big growth is a short-lived merger boost. Newmont gobbled up Australian super-major Newcrest Mining for $16.8b last year, with that deal closing in early November...
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2 months ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 18, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 24174 and is trading up about 16% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 6 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 23956.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 24488, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of April 29th, which has been a move of 6.222%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 24488 made 5 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 21048 and 24294. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of April 8th has exceeded the previous high of 20832 made back during the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 20030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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2 months ago
US Gold (USAU) is Sitting on a Substantial Gold-Copper Opportunity
By: Barchart | May 16, 2024
Poised to become a 100,000+ ounce annual gold-copper producer with its 100% owned CK Gold Project in Wyoming, US Gold (USAU) is sitting on a substantial opportunity.
Located in Wyoming’s Silver Crown Mining District, CK Gold’s pre-feasibility study estimated 1.01 million proven and probable ounces of gold, and about 248 million pounds of copper. In addition, CK Gold has a pre-tax net present value of about $323 million with a net present value of 39.4% internal rate of return, with gold and copper prices at $1,625 and $3.25 respectively.
Breaking News: US Gold Was Just Issued a Surface Gold Mine Permit for its CK Gold Project
In early May, US Gold was issued a surface gold mine permit for the development of its CK Gold Project from the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality.
"Having previously been granted the Industrial Siting Permit in June last year and now the Mine Operating Permit, we have cleared the major regulatory hurdles towards project development," CEO George Bee said.
“Work to meet final authorization for development is well underway. The remaining conditions are the approval of the reclamation bond which has already been submitted, the Wyoming Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permitting process, which is in the final stages of approval, and the WDEQ Air Quality Division permits, where technical work is under review. We remain on track to receive the necessary permits around mid-year, as per prior guidance,” he added.
Moving forward, the final detailed engineering and CK Gold Project development are expected to begin in the latter part of 2024. There’s also the potential to put the operation into production by 2026, as noted by the company.
And while CK Gold’s gold news is exciting, we can’t overlook the tremendous potential of US Gold’s potential 248 million pounds of copper.
CK Gold May Hold Enough Copper for a Million Electric Vehicles
With the potential for 248 million pounds of copper at CK Gold, US Gold could hold the key to global plans for renewable energy and electric vehicles.
According to the Copper Development Association, gas-powered cars need about 18 to 49 pounds of copper. Electric vehicles need as much as 183 pounds, with hybrids requiring more.
In addition, 248 million pounds of copper could create a good deal of stability for supply chains.
Also, with the current copper supply-demand issue, analysts at Citi are projecting that it could run 75% higher by 2025. Even Bank of America analysts forecast that the higher renewable energy targets would boost copper demand by an extra 4.2 million tons by 2030.
Some of its other projects include its Challis Gold Project in Idaho, and its Keystone Project, located on the prolific Cortez Gold Trend – which is considered to be one of the most highly prospective mineral trends.
And while all have substantial potential, CK Gold is its standout crown jewel at the moment.
US Gold’s Keystone Project Also Has Untapped Potential
Jumping back into US Gold’s gold story, the company’s Keystone Project is located on Nevada’s Cortez Trend, one of the most prolific gold mining trends and also home to some of North America’s biggest mines.
“The Keystone project is an under-explored, early-Tertiary, complex intrusive-centered, large gold-bearing hydrothermal system developed in domed permissive, lower-plate, carbonate host rocks. U.S. Gold Corp. has consolidated this entire prospective gold Cortez Trend district currently with 20 square miles of mineral rights control. This is the first time in history of the district that both the entire district has been consolidated by one company, and is being evaluated by systematic, comprehensive, model-driven exploration,” says US Gold.
Immediate term, the key to US Gold’s success is its crown jewel, the CK Gold Project.
With gold and copper prices at record highs, and more news from US Gold expected shortly, keep an eye on shares of USAU.
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2 months ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 11, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 199.6k, down 4.6k.
Last Friday, gold bugs showed up at $2,285 – well before testing horizontal support at $2,240s. They built on that this week, as the metal rallied 2.9 percent to $2,375/ounce. This comes after two weeks of decline.
On April 12th, gold printed a new intraday high of $2,449 but only to then reverse hard to close the session at $2,361. Friday’s intraday high of $2,385, in fact, kissed a falling trendline from that high. This resistance likely gives way in the sessions ahead.
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2 months ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 11, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23750 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. At the moment, this market has been rising for 6 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 23479.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 24488, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of April 29th, which has been a move of 4.380%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 24488 made 4 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 20767 and 23969. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of April 8th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 20832 made back during the week of January 29th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of December 25th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23402. Additional support is to be found at 22491. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 12 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 20030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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