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Use of UAVs Surges Over Iraq

[See the sidebar at the end of article for a description of the kinds of UAVs in use. ESLT is not mentioned, so I presume that its UAVs are not employed in Iraq. Much of this article is about the silly in-fighting between the branches of the USDoD.]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070705/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/unmanned_warfare

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By LOLITA C. BALDOR,
Jul 5, 2007

The use of unmanned aircraft in Iraq has surged by nearly a third since the buildup of U.S. forces began this year, and drones are now racking up more than 14,000 hours a month in the battlefield skies.

The increase in unmanned aircraft — from high-altitude Global Hawks to short-range reconnaissance Ravens that soldiers fling into the air — has fueled a struggle among the military services over who will control their use and the more than $12 billion that will be spent on the programs over the next five years.

The Air Force wants to take over development and purchasing of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), arguing that it would save money and improve technology and communications.

It also wants more centralized command of the drones, saying better coordination could eliminate airspace conflicts that can endanger U.S. troops.

The other military services see a power grab, and they're fighting it.

A little more than a year ago, about 700 unmanned aircraft were operating in Iraq. By last December, according to Army data, that number had grown to about 950, and it's expected to soon hit 1,250.

At least 500 are the smaller Ravens that are used by the Army. The rest include Hunters and Shadows — the Army's medium-altitude aircraft that can carry weapons — as well as the Air Force Predators, which are also armed. Larger Global Hawks are used for high-tech surveillance.

The boost has been caused in part by the military buildup ordered by President Bush to help secure Baghdad and the Anbar province. U.S. forces in Iraq have grown by nearly 30,000, to a total of 157,000.

The Air Force argument for more central control over how and where the larger, medium-to-high-altitude drones are used would affect aircraft flown generally above 3,500 feet.

The Army is opposing the plan. Army officials say unit commanders need to be able to quickly deploy drones, and any additional bureaucracy could cause risky delays.

To illustrate, Brig. Gen. Stephen Mundt, the Army's aviation director, turns to a dark, middle-of-the night video taken in May by an Army drone over northern Iraq.

Two armed men can be seen apparently planting roadside bombs. As the unmanned aircraft tracks them, U.S. commanders dispatch an attack helicopter team. Just 16 minutes after the drone first observed the activity, the helicopter's 30 millimeter canon fires, taking out the insurgents.

"This is all going on in real time. You can't plan this in advance. And this is not the only event going on, we've got hundreds of these going on all day," said Mundt.

If the Air Force plan is adopted, he said, it could delay access to drones and compromise the unit's response.

Not so, says the Air Force, arguing that lack of central control can endanger U.S. troops, too.

Drones would still be available for commanders who need them, but it's important that priorities be set by a joint air command, said Air Force Brig. Gen. Jan-Marc Jouas, vice commander of the Air Intelligence Agency.

According to a November study, he said, there have been many cases where U.S. forces could not respond immediately to mortar attacks because a drone had been launched in the area, triggering air space restrictions. He did not provide additional details on the incidents.

"I think there has been some confusion as to what it is the Air Force means," said Jouas. It's about giving the soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines "a better product to support them in the fight. It's not about taking UAVs away from the soldier or the Marine."

Air Force officials say their proposal will save millions of dollars, improve the systems and ensure the aircraft have compatible communications systems.

The funding change is critical, Jouas added, as a way to save money.

As an example, he said that instead of awarding a new contract for the Army's Sky Warrior program, the Pentagon could have worked with the existing, and similar, Predator program. Doing that, he said, could have saved between $400 million and $600 million.

The Army's Mundt, however, said his service had a competitive bidding process and the Sky Warrior was selected.

Pentagon leaders, including Deputy Defense Secretary Gordon England, are pressing the services to hammer out a compromise. And Navy Adm. Edmund P. Giambastiani Jr., vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, met last week with other top brass to review the Air Force plan, including England's June directive that the services work together more on the Army's new Sky Warrior program and the Air Force's long-standing Predator program.

But finding common ground has proven difficult.

The Pentagon's 2008 budget calls for spending nearly $900 million for five pricey Global Hawks, almost $70 million on 300 Ravens, and close to $700 million on research, development and procurement of two dozen Predators, four Reapers and a dozen Sky Warriors.

The Air Force's central control plan would involve the larger drones and not affect the small, shoulder-launched Ravens, which soldiers can send into the air for shorter range, lower altitude surveillance and reconnaissance.

All four military services are pursuing plans to buy more unmanned aircraft. The Army and Marine Corps are looking at buying the new Sky Warrior, which is touted as being more lethal than the Predator. It could carry four Hellfire missiles, while the existing Predators generally carry two. The two aircraft are built by the same company, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, based in California.

The Navy is looking into a new helicopter-like drone that can take off and land vertically on ships.

The Air Force, meanwhile, is investing $13 billion to buy 241 drones, including Predators, Global Hawks and Reapers, over the next five years.

Gen. Michael Moseley, the Air Force chief of staff, said one goal is to set up 21 orbits of continuous unmanned aircraft coverage in the Central Command region, which includes Iraq. Currently, he said there are about 10.

[Sidebar]

Unmanned Aircraft of the U.S. Military

The U.S. military is increasing its use of drones in Iraq. Some of the systems include:

• Global Hawk: The military's prime eye-in-the-sky provides high-altitude, high-resolution intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance in near real-time. Once programmed, it can taxi, take off, fly, capture images and return on its own, while ground-based operators monitor its progress or, if needed, change its course. It has a wingspan of about 116 feet, and can fly at altitudes of up to 65,000 feet. The prime contractor is Northrop Grumman's Ryan Aeronautical Center in California, and the proposed 2008 federal budget would spend $876.3 million on research, development and the purchase of five aircraft.

• Predator: Currently, the military's main hunter-killer system, the Predator is equipped with cameras, sensors and radar that can capture video and still images. It also has a targeting system and can carry two laser-guided Hellfire missiles. It is about 27 feet long, weighs more than 1,100 pounds, and can fly at altitudes up to 25,000 feet. The prime contractor is General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc. [#msg-18794055], and the proposed 2008 budget includes about $375 million for research, development and the purchase of 24 aircraft.

• Shadow: It's used by Army brigades on the battlefield for reconnaissance. The Shadow is smaller than the Global Hawk and Predator, with a wingspan of 12.3 feet, and it generally flies at altitudes between 6,000 and 10,000 feet. The contractor is AAI Corp., based in Maryland, and the proposed 2008 budget includes about $48 million for development.

• Raven: Weighing a little more than four pounds, the Raven has become a critical reconnaissance tool for smaller Army units, such as companies and battalions. It has a 5-foot wingspan, is a bit more than 3 feet long. Soldiers can fling them into the air by hand, though it also has an electric motor. It is often used to locate roadside bombs or let soldiers know what lies around the next corner or over the hill. The contractor is California-based AeroVironment Inc.[#msg-16439285], and the proposed 2008 budget includes nearly $23 million for research, development and the purchase of 300 aircraft.
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The Pilotless Plane That Looks Like Child’s Play

[A profile of one of the competitors in the UAV arena: a private company called General Atomics.]

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/15/business/yourmoney/15atomics.html

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By CHARLES DUHIGG
April 15, 2007

If you’re the type of shopper who spends billions of dollars on lethal military gadgets, and you’re ever invited to visit General Atomics Aeronautical Systems — the small, privately held San Diego company that has quickly become one of the military industry’s most celebrated businesses — take a bit of advice: accept a ride on the corporate jet.

The plane isn’t fancy. The cabin is cramped and the seats a little threadbare. (Want a beverage? Open the cooler, help yourself and quit whining about the heat.) Still, such bare-bones accoutrements haven’t stopped a parade of top military officials and politicians from clamoring for their own seats on General Atomics flights.

If you’re lucky, after the jet lands at the company’s airstrip in the high desert east of Los Angeles, you’ll tour one of the room-sized shipping containers clustered near the runway. Inside is a video-game addict’s idea of a cockpit, with joysticks, gauges and high-tech screens sprouting everywhere and a cushy chair that has improbably become one of the sexiest seats in the military. From that perch you can guide an unmanned airplane, known as the Predator, that is potentially thousands of miles away and can hover over suspected enemies for dozens of hours before raining down missiles.

For years, such planes — known as U.A.V.’s, for unmanned aerial vehicles — were pariahs within the military industry, scorned by commanders who saw them as threats to the status quo. But during the last several years, U.A.V.’s have amassed unusual political firepower. “For a long time, the only thing most generals could agree on was that they didn’t want any unmanned vehicles,” says Senator John W. Warner, the Virginia Republican who is a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. “Now everyone wants as many as they can get.”

In fact, only a decade ago, crucial Air Force commanders were lobbying to prevent battlefield deployment of U.A.V.’s, according to Congressional staff members. By 2005, however, John P. Jumper, then the Air Force chief of staff, had sufficiently about-faced to tell Congress that “we’re going to tell General Atomics to build every Predator they can possibly build.”

This transformation is, in many ways, a reflection of how the military’s priorities and goals have changed over the last decade. It is also a testament to how much clout General Atomics has amassed in a short period of time.

All of which raises another bit of advice if you’re visiting General Atomics: Don’t be late.

More than one official has learned the hard way that when the pilot of the General Atomics corporate jet says he’s flying back at noon, he means it. And that pilot is likely to be Thomas J. Cassidy Jr., a 34-year Navy veteran, former rear admiral, onetime commander of the station where the “Top Gun” flight school is based and now the president of General Atomics Aeronautical Systems. Mr. Cassidy’s belly may hang a bit over his belt now, but he’s so authentic that when the producers of the film “Top Gun” needed someone for a bit part who oozed power, they cast him.

Which is only fitting, for while General Atomics boasts elaborate technological gizmos and martial splendor, its authority also derives from its political savvy. In the last decade, the company has outgunned some of the nation’s biggest corporate heavyweights in the battle for prized military contracts. Soon, analysts say, Americans may rely on a host of General Atomics military devices, including magnetic cannons that use pulses of electricity to drop ammunition on distant targets, radar systems that can see through even the densest clouds and guns that shoot laser beams.

“Everyone talks about how the world has changed,” Mr. Cassidy says. “We’re building the technology for where it’s going.”

…the Predator and General Atomics reflect the military’s transformation from conflicts built around manned armor to strategies organized around surveillance. U.A.V.’s embody the potential for quick, relatively effortless wars fought by drones controlled from great distances, and thus have become lightning rods for battles over the military’s direction.

General Atomics, the progenitor of General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, started life in 1955 when a major military contractor, General Dynamics, feared that the military hardware market might dry up. It began exploring peacetime uses of atomic energy, but abandoned the effort when cold-war military spending took off. General Atomics eventually passed through the hands of a number of energy companies before landing in the lap of two Denver real estate moguls, Neal and Linden Blue, who bought it in 1986 for about $50 million.

…Soon after the brothers gained control of General Atomics in 1986, they unleashed their passion for advanced aviation by turning the company into a leading pioneer in drone warfare.

Military efforts to develop unmanned planes had existed for decades, but unreliable technology and shifting priorities had killed most of the programs. The Blues, however, were convinced that technological advances in microprocessing and global positioning systems had made it possible to build inexpensive, technologically reliable and ultralight unmanned airplanes that could stay aloft for days. They poured tens of millions of dollars into the project, eventually establishing a separate company, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Neal Blue said.

At the time, the Defense Department was less enthusiastic.

“The military can react to new threats and new enemies very quickly, but there is a very high bar to shifting how forces are deployed, because a mistake can be catastrophic to national security,” said Andrew L. Ross, a professor of political science at the University of New Mexico. “Commanders are skeptical about machines that remove soldiers from the field.”

The Predator itself has offered critics some ammunition. One analyst estimates that 20 percent of all Predators sold to the United States military have crashed, because of errors by pilots controlling them from the ground. Another analyst, who has flown the aircraft but asked not to be identified to maintain his relationship with General Atomics, says they offer significantly less maneuverability than manned jets.

Another analyst who has studied the history of U.A.V.’s says the Predator has failed at some crucial tests.

“It has never done everything the military originally wanted it to do,” said Tom P. Ehrhard, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a nonpartisan research organization. “It still fails on flight reliability, flight worthiness, the camera’s accuracy, the ability to fly through clouds. There are a whole series of operational limitations that normally would prevent a device like this from getting military adoption.”

Officials at General Atomics declined to discuss those and other criticisms in detail. An Air Force spokesman said that the number of Predator crashes had declined, and that the plane’s limitations had not prevented its combat use.

Another obstacle to military adoption of U.A.V.’s, say the Blues and others, is a dynamic even older than the panzerdivizion: resistance to innovations that threaten entrenched power structures.

“There is a very strong tendency to reward commanders for figuring out how to win the last war,” says Neal Blue. “The fiefdoms within the Department of Defense were built upon putting more people into airplanes or into the battlefield. Technologies that didn’t include cockpit pilots or moving soldiers were seen as unattractive.”

For its part, the Air Force disputes that turf wars ever impeded the Predator’s deployment. “It is hard to name any other aircraft that has accomplished so much in so little time, or that has had such an immediate impact on how we conduct combat operations,” it said in a statement. “It was the Air Force that gave birth to the concept that Predator could both find and attack fleeting targets, a concept that has paid huge dividends.”

Nonetheless, the Blues’ early attempts to find military supporters of U.A.V.’s during the 1980s and early ’90s met with little success.

“No fighter pilot is ever going to pick up a girl at a bar by saying he flies a U.A.V.,” says Andrew F. Krepinevich, a former Defense Department analyst who is executive director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. “When defense contractors initially talked about U.A.V.’s, they advertised them as replacements for fighter pilots. Fighter pilots don’t want to be replaced.”

But, ultimately, fighter pilots don’t run the military. Politicians do. And when Bill Clinton entered the White House in 1993, there was already a sense among some elected officials that the military was stuck in cold-war thinking, according to members of Congress at the time.

Those politicians, however, were increasingly butting heads with Pentagon officials. And the military industry, which collected billions of dollars a year selling expensive jets and submarines, was in no rush to tell customers that they needed smaller, cheaper equipment.

So the politicians used stealth tactics. In 1993, John M. Deutch, a deputy defense secretary under President Clinton, invited Neal Blue to the Pentagon under the pretense of discussing fusion reactors. Mr. Blue said in an interview that when he walked in, he discovered an array of high-ranking officials waiting to hear about the Predator. Mr. Deutch asked how long it would take to deliver a flight-ready aircraft. Six months, Mr. Blue promised.

“We were looking for technologies that were sufficiently path-breaking that they offered justification for changing military doctrine,” Mr. Deutch recalled.

Flashy images helped, too. The live video feeds from cameras attached to Predators were transmitted to commanders and politicians back home.

“There was a lot of work to make sure that G.A.’s product made it to the battlefield before the bureaucracy could stop it,” said Representative Duncan L. Hunter of California, the ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee. “We knew that once we sent all those pictures to Washington, D.C., the debate would be over.”

After the Predators’ deployment in the Balkans conflict in the 1990s, the military’s support for them began to grow. Although many analysts were already suggesting that Predators could easily carry weapons — cruise missiles use similar technologies — General Atomics avoided even mentioning such possibilities until clients requested them.

“There was an unspoken deal. It was obvious the technology existed to make the Predator into more than just a surveillance platform,” said Daniel Goure, a defense analyst at the Lexington Institute, a military policy research group in northern Virginia. “But fighter pilots shoot the missiles, and fighter pilots have a lot of power within the Air Force. So G.A. made it clear pilots didn’t have to worry about Predators doing something they hadn’t asked for.”

(In the late 1990s, armed Predators were rolling off the assembly line two months after they were requested by Air Force commanders, according to company executives.)

After taking office in 2001, President George W. Bush gave his defense secretary, Donald H. Rumsfeld, a mandate to remake the military into a more technologically advanced organization, and U.A.V.’s became a top priority, say former department officials. The Sept. 11 attacks and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan heightened the push.

By the time a Predator-launched missile killed a suspected Al Qaeda leader in 2002, even the public was accustomed to hearing about unmanned planes’ successes. Voicing enthusiasm for U.A.V.’s became an easy way for the military brass to show that it had signed on to Mr. Rumsfeld’s program.

“Predators became emblematic of what Rumsfeld wanted,” said Loren B. Thompson, a military analyst at the Lexington Institute. “Suddenly, everyone was saying they were ordering Predators, whether they actually wanted them or not.”

That shift has been profitable for General Atomics Aeronautical Systems. The company, which remains privately held, refuses to disclose its revenue or profits. But it now employs more than 2,400 workers and has sold more than 200 unmanned planes since 1993, according to a spokesman.

In 2005, the Air Force announced that it was ordering enough Predators to equip 15 squadrons over five years, at a price of $5.7 billion. The Department of Homeland Security has bought two Predators for border control, and Italy and Turkey have also bought planes.

A research firm, the Teal Group, predicts that the handful of U.A.V. manufacturers will collect about $55 billion worldwide over the next 10 years. General Atomics is expected to dominate a large portion of that market, said Philip Finnegan, an analyst at Teal.

When Mr. Rumsfeld stepped down last year, one of the mandates that had bolstered the Predator for so long also disappeared.

“Transformation is dead as a political idea,” Mr. Thompson said. “Rumsfeld was discredited by Iraq, and when he left, his priorities left with him.”

That presents a challenge for General Atomics, which is also confronting a flurry of competition. The major military contractors, including Northrop Grumman, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, have all jumped into the U.A.V. game. With billions of dollars at their disposal and deep military relationships, those companies can outspend smaller rivals.

“This is an exploding marketplace, and we intend to claim a larger market share as it grows bigger and bigger,” said Gemma Loochkartt, a spokeswoman for Northrop Grumman. “Being a leader in this sector is important to maintaining leadership within the defense industry.”

So General Atomics is aggressively building on its existing clout. Unlike many other military contractors, which wait for a guaranteed contract to build new products, General Atomics has set aside what some analysts estimate at $50 million to build the next generation of Predators.

“We can move faster because we’re smaller, and we make sure people know that,” says Mr. Blue, who, at 72, still actively guides the company’s strategic direction. General Atomics has upgraded its manufacturing with a diverse range of automated and laser-guided tools that allow it to quickly change design specifications and produce custom-built planes, a flexibility that analysts say is almost unrivaled within the military industry.

Despite a demand for its products that far outpaces supply, the company has kept the Predator relatively cheap — about $19.2 million a plane, according to a study that the Government Accountability Office released last year. “For the military, $19 million is almost an impulse buy,” said John E. Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a defense research firm in Washington.

Yet however much General Atomics competes on price, some of its most dexterous strategies have involved overtly political tactics.

In 2006, a study conducted by the nonpartisan Center for Public Integrity and other watchdog groups said that General Atomics had spent $660,000, more than any other company, sending Congressional staff members on trips. Company executives said the jaunts allowed staffers to help educate foreign governments about the Predator’s successes, although they acknowledge that they also improved the company’s relationships in Washington.

“Everyone else was doing it, so we did, too,” says Mr. Cassidy at General Atomics. After the study was released, General Atomics decided to sponsor less than $10,000 worth of Congressional trips a year.

General Atomics has also hired scores of former military commanders and has partnered with Lockheed Martin to pursue a $2 billion Navy program, one of its first such joint projects.

Equally important, the company has begun whispering to lawmakers about the importance of diversifying the military marketplace, say lobbyists who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak about the company. In part to preserve that selling point, General Atomics has spurned acquisition offers from major military contractors, Mr. Blue says.

Analysts say the trends that have kept General Atomics’ fortunes aloft are likely to persist for decades.

“It took 30 years for the world’s militaries to completely absorb and implement the technologies that started with panzerdivizions,” says Mr. Goure, the defense analyst. Although military strategists talk about organizing war-making around information and intelligence, the truth is that it will take decades for that transformation to be complete. In the meantime, leaders are likely to latch onto emblems of transformation — like the Predator — as symbols of progress.

“Once you prove that something works, a flurry of activity starts that builds the infrastructure for more innovations, and fights over who controls the new technologies emerge,” Mr. Goure says. “That’s when things become permanent.”

Such fights have already broken out over Predators. This year, the Air Force told Congress that it, rather than other branches of the military, should control the deployment of unmanned planes. Commanders in other military branches have voiced disagreement.

“The Predator has become a very durable and powerful symbol in a very short time,” says Mr. Thompson, the defense analyst.

That transition is even more impressive, considering what the Predator cannot do.

“It is unclear if this plane will ever meet some of the key suitability tests the Air Force applies to most aircraft,” said Mr. Ehrhard, the military analyst. “But no one seems to care that much.”

Which brings us to a final bit of advice for visiting General Atomics: Don’t count on leisurely send-offs. When its corporate jet lands back in San Diego, the company’s president is likely to bound out, make a dash for his BMW — the one with the license plate reading “UAV S”) — and shout out a hasty goodbye.

“I gotta run,” said Mr. Cassidy, the pilot and executive, after a recent flight. “We’ve got planes to sell.”
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