TheFinalCD
10 months ago
CONGRAT$$$ $IMGN https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/abbvie-completes-acquisition-of-immunogen-302059477.html
Message in reply to:
I currently have 30K in July $32 and $33 options where my average price is below $.10, I intend to buy at least 10K more but the share price has been moving up, and I won't chase it much higher. I've had several days where in a 5K order I get one or a few calls filled at prices like $.05, over time if nothing is filling, I'll raise the bid to $.10 and get it. Days later, $.10 doesn't do it, at least not quickly. If I'm right, and if the offer goes up dramatically higher, I might make more money from the options than the shares I'm holding.
Have a Happy New Year's all,
Gary
skitahoe
10 months ago
Over the years IMGN has moved at a snails pace on almost every occasion, but in this buyout, I've never seen anything go as quickly as this. As investors, with so few quarters of earnings on Elahere I believe we've been completely screwed, but nothing will be done about it, the executives are all being very well rewarded with all the options they've had coming and we get a price that I believe is far lower than was possible if the company had waited until at least this years annual report before acting to sell the company.
Gary
skitahoe
10 months ago
I'm not aware of any Institution opposing the buyout, but I would suspect that there are discussions with both the legal firm that's opposing the buyout, as well as the company speaking to the major institutional owners. If the company senses that they don't have the votes they can probably delay the election. Of course if they get an improved offer, that would have to be divulged.
We should know something in less than two weeks. If the vote is positive, I don't know that it is the last word, there are still regulatory issues and I don't know that a legal challenge couldn't still be successful.
Gary
skitahoe
11 months ago
I'll certainly admit that I may have missed something previously, but I wonder if anyone saw that if you wanted to submit a proposal at the Annual Meeting, which will only be held if the buyout isn't approved, it had to be submitted by December 28th of last year. I'll be the first to admit I don't read that much of the financials, etc, I skim them, so I could easily have missed such notice. Did anyone remember seeing this, and is it common with other years.
The company is clearly working to get this done with the very least interference from investors. It's clear that at least a few legal firms are seeking to prevent this from happening, at least in the manner currently proposed. I have no idea if any of them have the support of one or more of the major Institutional holders, without that it no doubt will pass as they wish.
There is just over 4 weeks, but hopefully it's sufficient time to get an additional proposal, or for ABBV to up the ante to avoid a shareholder veto of the agreement.
Gary
skitahoe
11 months ago
I currently have 30K in July $32 and $33 options where my average price is below $.10, I intend to buy at least 10K more but the share price has been moving up, and I won't chase it much higher. I've had several days where in a 5K order I get one or a few calls filled at prices like $.05, over time if nothing is filling, I'll raise the bid to $.10 and get it. Days later, $.10 doesn't do it, at least not quickly. If I'm right, and if the offer goes up dramatically higher, I might make more money from the options than the shares I'm holding.
Have a Happy New Year's all,
Gary
skitahoe
11 months ago
I've read where they anticipate the decision will be finalized in 100 to 250 days. I really don't believe that we'll hear anything before the Holiday period is over as too many key people are on vacation. I would hope that by February we'll have some indication, either a bidder, or notice of when an Annual or Special Meeting is being conducted to vote on the proposal.
If the company receives anything, I believe they're bound to tell us.
It seems like many who've looked at it believe the penalty that will be paid to ABBV could prevent a competing bid. I really believe that IMGN should be worth significantly more, at least a few more billions. If that's the case, the payment of a fraction of a billion to ABBV shouldn't prevent such an action. I would hope that any new offer came in at least at $40 a share, ideally higher than that. If I'm right about that high a price, the penalty shouldn't prevent a thing.
Gary
skitahoe
12 months ago
IMGN recognized in another article:
https://beststocks.com/promising-results-of-pivekimab-combination-th/
On I-V a poster suggested that Roche would be making an offer, I hope he's right. What I like about Roche is that if often keeps companies they purchase operating as wholly owned subsidiary. In the case of Genentech, they spun it out and reacquired it, and they could do that again.
I believe that not only would Roche be a better fit, I also believe they'd permit IMGN's technology to continue to grow, I'm not sure the same can be said for ABBV.
Gary
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skitahoe
12 months ago
If we look at SGEN for comparison, we find that the price moves up and down at levels under the buyout price. The only way I see this going over the buyout price is if there is a strong belief that the buyout either won't occur, or that the price will be adjusted upwards.
If Institutions told IMGN that unless ABBV increase the offering they'll vote against it, if ABBV really wants the company, they could raise the price themselves. Of course while IMGN is prevented from soliciting a higher offer, it doesn't mean that another company, willing to pay more, couldn't get into the fray knowing that part of what they pay would be a penalty to ABBV.
If as an investor you believe that nothing will happen to change the offering, the question is, if IMGN's price climes to say something above $30, is it worth the wait to get $31.26. My only reason for holding if $30 is achieved would be the hope that the offering is modified or rejected. Had this offering been at $40 a share, I believe that most would still believe ABBV got a great deal.
Gary
skitahoe
12 months ago
It's no different than SGEN, trading near, but under the buyout price.
The only way this changes is if either Investors, primarily Institutions show some resistance to the buyout price, or they actually get competing bids which certainly would raise the price to near what the new bid was.
Personally I'm unsatisfied with the offer after being in the company essentially all it's life. I believe if it's turned down we'll maintain about $25 or more, and with more proof of what our products are doing, that could easily be the basis for an offer in the $40 to $50 range. While I believe a few years from now we could be worth far more than that, it would be a far better price than what management has sold out for.
Gary
skitahoe
12 months ago
Honestly my position is much bigger than I ever planned, but I'll never say that under the right conditions I won't buy more. I do believe that if the buyout goes through at this, or higher prices, I should diversify into one or more additional stocks. I want to look at other options.
If NWBO does what I believe it will, I'll probably go into more of a wealth preservation mode, stable stocks with substantial dividends. I don't want to make such a move until I'm well into 7 figures, but it's a lot closer than it's been in some time. I really believe that NWBO has nearly unlimited growth potential, if it's not bought out. I can't say that I believe IMGN to have that much potential, but certainly believed it could match or exceed SGEN in time, and I'm sorry that won't be allowed to happen. I still think IMGN's technology is superior to SGEN's in at least some of the areas they've chosen to attack.
Over the years IMGN often acted before they could get maximum value, frequently with offerings just before major gains in stock prices that were predictable based on what they knew was coming. I believe this buyout is much the same thing, they're finally in position to really grow, and they're selling out too cheaply. I'll live with it if it goes through, but hope the Institutional owners feel the same way and say no, we want more.
Time will tell, I'm open to ideas.
Gary
skitahoe
12 months ago
I'd strongly recommend taking a look at NWBO, if I'm right their potential may be unlimited as they use the cancer and white cells from the patient to create a vaccine that's specific to that patient. They proved the concept in GBM, one of the toughest cancers, and at UCLA they combined it with Poly-ICLC and/or Keytruda and have taken 5 year survival to 50% or more. The SOC has 5% survival, and the vaccine alone achieved 13%, but the other therapeutics don't work without being combined with the vaccine.
Under compassionate use in the UK several patients with different cancers were treated, and while it's just anecdotal evidence, it's enough for the company to openly say it's a tumor agnostic vaccine. On GBM approval alone the stock should go into double digit prices in a year or so, but with a tumor agnostic label, just move the decimal point a couple or more to the right, if it isn't bought out.
The vaccine has virtually no negative side effects, but in GBM, and perhaps all the other solid cancers it increases T-cell counts dramatically in the cancer, so your own T-cells are fighting your cancer.
There are many bashers casting doubt on the trial, but I believe the regulators have been involved, and accepted all the changes and approvals will come, perhaps with confirming trials required in the future. No doubt there will be several trials post approval to expand the label to truly tumor agnostic.
By the way, I'm really not that certain that the Institutions will agree to the buyout price, ABBV's estimate that sales for Elahere should reach $2 billion a year may tell the Institution's that this price is already too low, and it's not providing any real value to IMGN's extensive pipeline and partnerships.
Gary
vinmantoo
12 months ago
Vinmantoo, we're in much the same position, but I'm far from thrilled about the price IMGN is taking. I understand that ABBV's revenue estimate for Elahere alone is $2 billion a year, that alone should justify a $20 billion buyout with a P/E of only 10 and it could very well be 20 or more over the years. In the clinic they're already getting what should be the second generation of Elahere, an even more effective drug which should have a broader label. Their drug, Pivek, for BPDCN ought to be a sure approval for it, whether it's benefit in leukemia is that great, or not. It may, or may not be a blockbuster, depending on the outcome with leukemia, but it's a miracle worker for BPDCN.
Gary, you are preaching to the choir. While I am disappointed the buyout price isn't higher, I am very grateful for this windfall, at least for me. I doubt what individual shareholders say matters with regards to approving the buyout as the institutional shareholders hold all the cards. They almost certainly prefer the sure quick payout rather than a rejection in the hopes for a bigger one a year or two later.
Good luck with NWBO. I have no idea what they are about.
skitahoe
12 months ago
Vinmantoo, we're in much the same position, but I'm far from thrilled about the price IMGN is taking. I understand that ABBV's revenue estimate for Elahere alone is $2 billion a year, that alone should justify a $20 billion buyout with a P/E of only 10 and it could very well be 20 or more over the years. In the clinic they're already getting what should be the second generation of Elahere, an even more effective drug which should have a broader label. Their drug, Pivek, for BPDCN ought to be a sure approval for it, whether it's benefit in leukemia is that great, or not. It may, or may not be a blockbuster, depending on the outcome with leukemia, but it's a miracle worker for BPDCN.
They still have their technology in a number of other partnerships where with approval they could earn substantial milestone and royalty payments, I believe all of those will remain in force, only it will be found money for ABBV, not IMGN.
I may be one of the few who've been in this essentially from it's beginning, I've always felt in time it would have a big payday. I believe this is a moderate one, not one that's really big to celebrate. I hope that one or more of the Institutions see it as I do, if they do and make their opposition clear, I believe others will support a no vote and it will either achieve a better offer from ABBV, or a much higher price if the company operates independently for another year or two. At least in a year or two a much greater knowledge of our pipeline will be known, if it's positive we'll be worth a lot more, if it's not, Elahere sales will still be higher, so we'll be worth more than we are today.
My position in NWBO is already quite large, and if it's up in the next few months, as I expect, it could exceed IMGN, so I don't know that I want to add more to it, though I believe their vaccine could become a part of the SOC in many solid cancers in the next several years with trials proving the vaccine is truly tumor agnostic. I'm considering a position in AVXL, their Alzheimer's drug has a good chance of getting European approval sometime next year, if it does, I believe the FDA and others will follow. I'm certainly happy to learn of other leading edge companies to consider.
Gary
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1 year ago
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