forztnt2
1 hour ago
Michael Lebby Brieifing Jan 28, 2025 "GenusTechnik, EU Projects, Pilot Lines and Innovation Hubs Breakfast."
had not seen this posted previously. No earth shattering revelations really (especially since this was a breakfast talk) but still an interesting 2 minute read.
Perhaps a few items revealing his thoughts in no particular priority:
Patents and IP helps convince customers
Convincing Corporations/banks/VCs/governments/larger lines is a challenge
Getting customers to trust and switch pilot lines... must show credibility and quality.
EU has multiple pilot lines that can scale
Small vs. large advantages and disadvantages of foundries and fab lines are noted
He believes Europe has an advantage over USA/Japan/Asia
Promotes additional access for SMEs, focus on hybrid performance and packaging, creation of more PIC pilot line scale projects to impact other verticals.
He believes pilot lines can help lead the way to greater commercialization
https://epic-photonics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/1-Michael-Lebby-Genustechnik.pdf
Sooo if lebby wanted more pilot line work impacting additional verticals, perhaps the board wanted larger customer/foundries and focusing on 1 specific rather than multiple verticals.
GLTA
WooptdooU
5 hours ago
Bwahaha, next up, please help! Ignore the fact, the INSIDERS punched shareholders in their face. Ignore, and hope for the next hope.
No justice toward lebby or marcinobodi or the UNadmiral or enabler bocci? Cowardice...oh, no, it's just how one looks at this...half full, right?
Can't wait to see your bar time this year " " poster....shareholder rep, you!
shazam1355
18 hours ago
Hi Druid,
I really enjoy your posts and enjoy all your technical expertise, and chuckle at your call outs to the posters who claim to pose as technical experts lol. Quick question if you can share, you have the technical skills, and you obviously understand the company well, so based on where we stand right now, management change, a lot of speculation about either we get some deals asap or we end up selling the company. If this is indeed what will transpire what share price would you be happy with (based on a depressed share price) and the fact that we are currently not in the drivers seat. Would $5 to $ 10 dollars be a fair price? Any thoughts would be appreciated. I know a lot speculated $ 30- $ 100 dollars but that seems like a pipe dream at this point. Thanks in advance for any response.
prototype_101
1 day ago
fear & greed game is what cause capitulations, when LWLG hit $20 I told everyone here it had gotten ahead of itself and was clearly a time to sell, and FACT is that I was the ONLY person to do that BTW, back then I used to post routinely that the fair value for Developments and IP to-date was in the range of $5 to $10, and I believe that was correct for that time, currently the 5 year VWAP is around $7 and I believe the minimum fair valuation for Developments and IP to-date is about $8, so the current PPS at $1.32 is as woefully undervalued as it was woefully overvalued at $20 in 2021
Was 2024 such a horrible year of Developments really? come on people, WAKE UP, at OFC in March 2024 LWLG Demo'd the 200Gbs modulator with world class metrics being produced on large 200mm Wafers, this is something the leading TFLN development company Hyperlight has said they will NOT be able to do for at least 3-5 years from now!! This got so much attention from the Tier 1's, adding a couple dozen NDA's, that Lebby was overwhelmed and had to pick and choose the "friendly's" as he called them to work with, and at ECOC the Industry Insiders voted LWLG for the second year in a row as the winner of the Optical Integration Award because Polymers have "Ease of Integration" and investors know that in late 2024 Lebby reported being in "deepening relationships" with some of the largest Transceiver makers on 3 continents!!! And at the ASM in May 2024 investors learned that PkM-6 and the 4x200 PIC were in Qualifications, and just before his departure in a Podcast Lebby proclaimed that the "Failure Mechanisms" Testing (a FINAL HURDLE OF QUALIFICATIONS) had been proving out to show LWLG's materials being "even more robust" than even he, Lebby had anticipated!!!
The current 800Gbs Transceivers are built with 8 individual EML modulators, there is NO REASON that Transceiver makers could not use 4 LWLG Polymer modulators just the same and get better performance metrics!!
Why the strategy shift?
1) LWLG was woefully under staffed for Device Developments of multiple Tier 1's on 3 continents custom PIC's
2) The Tier 1's Transceiver makers would have felt like LWLG was competition in doing device builds which is what these companies do every day
3) Lebby wanted "full value" for LWLG Polymers, he knew what he had in hand and wanted to as he said "leave nothing on the table", Lebby in essence wanted to be the tail wagging the dog
And so in conclusion, you and all the other investors can either listen to teddybear, punkipoo and the rest of the Short clowns spin their tall tales of failure and capitulate your shares now and they will love you for it, or you can believe what Lebby told investors that he needed "a little more time" to meet is long-standing Timeline to Tier 1 Customer Acceptance as 2024 was coming to an end, today we are LESS THAN 2 MONTHS beyond that Timeline that was put in motion as far back as the 2019 ASM and Yves the new CEO has a HUGE reputation in the Industry as a deal maker, and he will most certainly be inking Tier 1 deals here in 2025, the "need" in the Industry has never been greater, AI is rapidly accelerating the processing and transmission of data and the legacy technologies are maxxed out and using extremely high power as these Next-Gen speeds!! LWLG Polymer modulators can be optimized for SINGLE LANE SPEEDS of 1 TERABIT!!
prototype_101
1 day ago
Gemini, when comparing the new materials, Polymers, TFLN and BTO for volume scaling modulators, which is the best and/or easiest solution for Next-gen Networks?
Among the technologies you listed, Polymers are currently showing the most promising path toward volume scaling, particularly when integrated with silicon photonics. Here's why:
Leveraging Existing Infrastructure:
- The key advantage of polymer modulators is their potential to be integrated with existing silicon photonics platforms.
This means they can leverage the established manufacturing infrastructure and expertise of silicon foundries
- This significantly reduces the barriers to large-scale production compared to technologies that require entirely new manufacturing processes.
Progress in Material Stability:
- While polymer stability was a concern in the past, significant advancements have been made in developing more robust and reliable polymer materials.
- Ongoing research and development are further improving their long-term performance.
Compatibility with Silicon Photonics:
- The ability to integrate polymer modulators with silicon photonics platforms is a major advantage for volume scaling.
- This allows for the creation of hybrid devices that combine the best of both technologies.
Lower temperature processing:
- Polymer processing is generally done at lower temperatures than other technologies like TFLN and BTO. This makes them more compatible with back end of line processing in current foundries.
While challenges remain, the combination of material advancements and compatibility with silicon photonics makes polymers a strong contender for volume scaling.
Folks, investors ALREADY KNOW that LWLG can scale volume of its 200gbs Polymer modulators on large 200mm Wafers as proven at OFC which generated ENORMOUS amounts of interest from Tier 1's all around the world, meanwhile the leading TFLN development company Hyperlight told investors it would take at least another 3-5 years for TFLN to be able to scale in volume!!!
Yves will be inking the deals here in 2025!!! guaranteed!!! don't be fooled by the lies and deceptions of the teddybear and all the other scumbag Shorts posting non-stop here with all their pure bullsh!t!!
prototype_101
1 day ago
Global Foundries Anthony Yu talking about "new materials" contains the hard truth that Polymers will be the only real choice, start watching the clip around 10 minute market, the first words out of Yu's mouth when he talks of new materials is Optical Polymers!! then Yu goes on to say TFLN with the snarkiest possible look on his face!!! why? because TFLN can't scale in volume, and it has Foundry contamination issues, and it can only be sourced primarily from China, and even worse when he talks about BTO he actually jokes about having to hide that from the management, and that's because of high contamination risks to the Foundry!!!
LWLG Polymers can easily be Integrated in Silicon Photonics Foundries, the supply is virtually unlimited, and US based with LWLG!!!!
ECOC Slide 20 is the ONLY information you need to understand to know LWLG is a incredible buying opportunity!!
https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/307dbc8b-e212-48ba-9968-8cef3f6b5188/0d5d1e3e-2052-00d8-bb2f-2b7a2adf0310?origin=1
On the LEFT is a comparison of LWLG's technology to the touted #1 competitive threat TFLN
On the RIGHT is a comparison the other commercial Polymer materials development companies
To make it EASY PEASY for you, BOTH of these supposed BEST competitors pale by comparison!!!!!
LWLG >>>> Fabrication and processing: EASY (foundry compatible) & LOW TEMP (<150°C)
Couple this with this recent Paper with authors from Cisco, Intel, and Arista (Andy B) which points out just how crappy TFLN's position is today in being ready to commercialize!! TFLN is a joke really!!! Even the #1 TFLN Development company recently said it may take 3 or more years from now to be able to scale volume of TFLN modulators!!! here from the Paper
“For monolithic TFLN modulators and PICs, 150 mm wafer is the largest size for product presently. Limited wafer size, large device footprint, relatively high material cost, and thin-film uniformity contribute a large portion of the chip cost. Although the chip fabrication is not overly complex, uniform waveguide formation for ultra-low loss operation is not trivial, which necessitates optimized photolithography, etching technology, and post-fabrication processes. Additionally, long-term DC drift remains a challenge for TFLN. To make these modulators commercially viable and reliable, thermally or electrically phase control is a must.
TFLN modulators heterogeneously integrated with silicon or Si3N4 are still in the R&D stage. Similar to III-V-on-silicon heterogeneous integration, TFLN integration occurs towards the back-end-of-line (BEOL) process and requires specialized processing tools along with stringent cross-contamination controls, especially if large-wafer scale processing is involved. The TFLN transfer step is critical for achieving high yield and optimal device performance.”
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10666944/references#references
prototype_101
1 day ago
The PkM material systems have accomplished what Industry has sought after for 40+ years, it is the holy grail of Photonics
IBM, Lockheed Martin, DuPont, AT&T Bell Labs, Honeywell, Motorola, HP, 3M, and others in addition to numerous universities and U.S. Government Agencies, have attempted to produce high-performance, high-stability electro-optic polymers <<<< literally in the Billions R&D $$ were spent to try to do what LWLG has done!!
PkM-5 is for 200Gbs per lane and is already fully optimized and the one where Lebby said the industry is no longer questioning the R&S of LWLG Polymers, and it has a high Tg which enables it to be mass produced in Foundries, there is no other "new material" with better metrics an/or "Ease of Integration" into CMOS Foundries, period full stop, PkM-5 is the material that amazed all of the Tier 1's at OFC March 2024 demos of LWLG's 200Gbs modulator with world class metrics produced on large 200mm Wafers
ECOC Optical Integration Award won back-to-back years 2023 & 2024
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175788732
PkM-6 is for 400Gbs per lane and was shown as "In Qualifications" as of the ASM in May 2024, it is the material system likely most desired by the Tier 1's, in Lebby's recent Podcast he speaks to "Failure Mechanisms" testing which is a final hurdle before Customer Acceptance and reports that the materials are performing "more robust than even he had expected" and so I'm sure PkM-6 by now would be fully optimized and ready for deals with the Tier 1's
Failure Mechanism >>
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175815849
There are 20 million Shorts currently, and most likely a large number of Naked Shorts as well, if you watch the trading carefully it is EASY to see the manipulation that is occurring daily, you can routinely see large buy orders filled that don't move the price up but maybe a penny, then with a few small trades of 100 shares or less they drop it down 2,3,4 pennies, it's obvious it's a strategy to manipulate the PPS lower that has been in full swing with low volume high frequency trading for a long time now!!
The new "Go to Market" strategy will bring deals the same way the 2024 OFC demos of the 200gs modulator with world class metrics produced on large 200mm Wafers brought an onslaught of Tier 1 NDA's and even got teams from these Tier 1's out to the LWLG labs in CO, and I believe these deals can be struck rather quickly as the new CEO is most notably known for his dealmaking abilities, and I don't believe he would have accepted the role of CEO if this was not the case, I also believe that after joining the BOD in August he had meetings with decision makers at the various Tier 1's and recognized that the current strategy of LWLG's devices team building these advanced PIC's for OE's was stepping on the toes of these Tier 1 Transceiver maker companies who would prefer to do this themselves
As far as the PPS moving higher, I believe the first Tier 1 deal will certainly spark a rally that would at minimum bring the PPS back to the minimum fair value level I described above, however, the PPS is so dramatically oversold that a move back to the $3-$5 range could easily happen even before the first Tier 1 deal is announced, and if the Shorts see any kind of rally catching fire at these bargain basement prices, there may actually be a bit of a squeeze as Shorts scramble to exit, I believe the only capitulation that will be seen will be on a move to the upside from here
I believe the PPS is as undervalued in the $1's as it was overvalued at $20 in 2021, I believe the minimum fair value of the Developments and IP to-date is about $8, the current 5 year VWAP is at about $7
x993231
2 days ago
I think that he thought he could do it. I had about $30k expire in options as well. Oh well, I'm sure that he feels bad, sometimes I think that I can do things that I can not, tis life.
Was not his fault, I think that he thought that he could do it.
X I thought I could build that development in 1 year. I've made many mistakes myself I got fired for not delivering, if you don't aim high then you aren't aiming high enough.
jd757
2 days ago
My Jan 25 calls also required it, didn't happen, big loss, the position was based on Lebbys Dec 23 shareholder letter, then the August reaffirmation of imminent deal. Total bullshit, I too have March calls that will be worthless as well. Every word out of Lebby was a lie to the shareholders, there were no immenent deals, I dont believe there were ever any "NDAs" either, but others on this board swear by the huge number of them.
Dreamtravbelgium
2 days ago
He hasn’t sold his shares. He has only made them available for trading in case he decides to sell. If Lebby were to sell now, after all his communication and promises over the past years, and nothing were to happen before the ASM, I believe he would spend the rest of his days in a courtroom. He certainly wouldn’t be enjoying his retirement. I think Lebby is smart enough not to do this and understands that his career, reputation, and all his years as CEO aren’t worth throwing away just for an “F you” to the BOD.
LWLG still has three months to close a deal that confirms our analysis of this company and turns the tide. Let’s not give in to sentiment and wait it out. Someone with the reputation of Yves Lemaître saw the same potential we all saw in this company and joined the BOD. After six months, he recognized the flaws and decided to take over as CEO to fix them himself. Give him the time he needs. He will get it done.
Have a great weekend, everyone!