DiscoverGold
1 day ago
$MSFT has been in a prolonged compression, forming lower highs and higher lows. This type of setup often leads to a bullish expansion or a significant breakout...
By: Peter DiCarlo | December 1, 2024
⢠$MSFT has been in a prolonged compression, forming lower highs and higher lows.
This type of setup often leads to a bullish expansion or a significant breakout.
With the market showing strength and momentum heading into December, I anticipate Microsoft will follow suit and break out to the upside, aligning with the broader rally.
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Stock Guy777
4 days ago
Shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) have been a cornerstone of tech portfolios for many years now, and 2024 has done little to tarnish that reputation. The stock is up a solid 15% year-to-date, and while it's struggled to push past July's all-time high, there are several reasons for investors to be excited.
Chief among these is the fact that analysts are exceedingly bullish on the tech titan's prospects heading into 2025. With the stock trading in a narrowing range, we could soon be looking at a breakout. Its shares are currently less than a 10% move away from July's high, so let's jump in and see what could send them soaring past it in the coming weeks.
Microsoft's Fundamental Performance Continues to Impress
For starters, there's the company's impressive fundamental performance. Microsoft has consistently beaten analyst expectations for its earnings for over two years, with this trend continuing with its most recent report at the end of last month. That report saw the company smash expectations for both headline numbers, with revenue growth standing out with a 16% year-on-year gain.
Investors should expect further gains heading into the rest of the year, as the holiday quarter historically tends to be Microsoft's strongest.
Bullish Analyst Updates Keep Microsoft in the Spotlight
Building on the fact that the internals are ticking over nicely, always a good starting point when considering a stock, is the fact that several analysts have been calling Microsoft a red-hot buy right. The teams at Royal Bank of Canada, UBS Group, and JPMorgan, to name just a few, have all reiterated their Buy ratings or equivalents in the past month alone. These updates echo a broader sentiment among analysts who have been consistently bullish on Microsoft throughout 2024.
Just last week, the Wedbush team doubled down on their bullish outlook for Microsoft, reiterating a Buy rating and a lofty $550 price target. From where the stock closed on Tuesday night, that's pointing to a targeted upside of nearly 30%. Needless to say, were Microsoft shares to hit that in the coming weeks, they'd be well above July's high and cruising into blue sky territory.
Potential Concerns: Analysts Reassess Microsoft Price Targets
While there is a lot of optimism about the stock, there are some notes of caution to consider. While maintaining their bullish ratings, some analysts have been reining in their price targets. For example, TD Cowen recently lowered theirs, citing higher capital expenditure forecasts. Still, the fact that they held off on doing a full downgrade from their Buy says enough about their confidence in the company's long-term prospects. Plus, even their revised $475 price target would have the stock trading at a fresh high.
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For further counterbalance, it's worth noting that Morgan Stanley did the opposite with their price target on Microsoft shares and actually boosted it following last month's report.
Microsoftâs Technical Setup Suggests December Gains Are Likely
From a technical perspective, there's a lot to like as well. After months of steady consolidation and mostly sideways price action, the stock is now setting higher lows, a key indicator of building momentum.
Strengthening this thesis is the fact that Microsoft's MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover, while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just 57. For context, the RSI is a popular technical indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of a stock's recent price changes to assess whether it is overbought or oversold. It runs on a scale of 0 to 100, with readings above 70 indicating overbought conditions and below 30 signaling oversold conditions. At 57, Microsoft's RSI suggests that momentum is firmly on the bull's side, and the stock has a lot of room to run before it could even be considered.
With the Fed cutting interest rates and broader indices like the S&P 500 currently at record levels, the macro environment also adds to the sense that a breakout to the north could be on the cards.
Investors should look for the stock to continue setting higher lows into December, with a move above $440 all but confirming the breakout has begun.
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Microsoft (MSFT) the most under-owned mega cap tech stock. This stock is most over-owned
By: Investing.com | November 19, 2024
Morgan Stanleyâs analysis of large-cap institutional ownership reveals shifting dynamics in mega-cap technology stocks.
While the under-ownership of these stocks relative to their S&P 500 weighting has decreased, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) remains the most under-owned mega-cap tech stock, while Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU) top the list of over-owned names, according to the bank.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) says the overall gap between mega-cap tech stocksâ institutional ownership and their S&P 500 weighting narrowed by 17 basis points (bps) during the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24), moving from -113 bps in 2Q24 to -96 bps by the end of 3Q24.
Yet, "MSFT remains the most under-owned mega cap tech stock we track," with a gap of -2.08%, despite narrowing by 34 bps quarter over quarter (QoQ).
The bank says other mega-cap stocks are also under-owned but less so than Microsoft. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), the second most under-owned, is said to have widened its gap by 14 bps in 3Q24 to -1.86%.
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), by contrast, reportedly saw the most significant improvement, narrowing its gap by 72 bps to -1.4%, a marked shift from -2.12% in the prior quarter.
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley said Intuit (INTU) and Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) are among the most over-owned stocks, with institutional ownership exceeding their S&P 500 weighting by +0.60% and +0.37%, respectively.
CRM (Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) is also said to appear over-owned, with a +0.32% gap.
Morgan Stanley concludes that while mega-cap tech under-ownership has diminished, Microsoft continues to offer a potential opportunity for investors, given its persistent under-representation relative to its S&P 500 weighting.
Conversely, they believe the over-ownership of names like Intuit and Adobe may signal concentrated positioning in these stocks.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Options traders are blasting META and MSFT
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | October 31, 2024
⢠How 2 Big Tech Titans Are Faring After Earnings
⢠Shares of Meta Platforms and Microsoft are moving lower
Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) are reeling after their highly anticipated earnings reports. While the former met Wall Street's estimates, user numbers for the third quarter came up short. Meanwhile, though the latter beat fiscal first-quarter expectations, its revenue growth outlook missed the mark.
META was last seen down 2.2% at $578.67, pivoting lower after yesterday's attempt to conquer its Oct. 7, record high of $602.95. The 40-day moving average looks poised to contain additional losses, however, and longer term, the shares still boast an 85% year-over-year lead.
MSFT is down 5.3% to trade at $409.45 at last glance, after yesterday running into a ceiling at the $440 rally that also capped price action in mid-September. The security is on track for its biggest single-day percentage loss since October 2022, but still sports a 9.5% lead for 2024.
Options traders have been quick to the trigger. META has seen 161,000 calls and 126,000 puts exchanged so far today, which is four times the intraday average volume. The weekly 11/1 600-strike call is the most popular, where new positions are being opened. MSFT has seen 198,000 calls and 111,000 puts cross the tape -- three times the volume typically seen at this point -- with the most activity at the 400-strike put.
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north40000
1 month ago
An anomaly of good luck and bad luck I observed today:
1) I bought 500 shares MSFT at $26/share on 12/30/2011. Those shares currently trade ~ $434/share. I have sold none over the years.
Those shares are in a taxable account.
2) I bought 200 shares AMRN at $7.68/share on 3/2/2011. Those shares currently trade ~ $0.60/share. I have accumulated a total of
~ 222,300 shares AMRN since that date at various prices, coupled with wash sales in IRA.. I am nearly break even in IRA, and have large
short term and long term losses in a taxable account totaling ~ $182,000.
Both MSFT and AMRN have post 4 pm earnings calls today, and Amarin has a 2 hour investor call scheduled in mid-November. I will be listening to the AMRN call. The FDA and EU along with other areas( e.g., China, Australia, New Zealand, Middle East, Canada) have given marketing approval for its Vascepa to treat, and reduce risk of death from, various forms of cardiovascular disease( CVDs). One person dies every 38-40 seconds from heart disease in U.S., per CDC and/or WHO. The market is large, and I have confidence the market value of AMRN shares will eventually greatly exceed that of MSFT. Sarissa Capital, per its CEO Dr. Alex Denner, has bought a little less than 10% of Amarin shares in the belief that AMRN shares are undervalued. He and AMRN BOD and managers are looking for a buyout.
Bountiful_Harvest
2 months ago
OpenAI is effectively a revenue laundromat for Microsoft and the company does not even hide it in its own projections as you can see in the chart below considering âMicrosoft Revenue Sharesâ, âCompute To Train Modelsâ, âCompute To Run Modelsâ, âResearch and Computing Amortizationâ and âHostingâ are all items related to OpenAI relationship with Microsoft.
https://justdario.com/2024/10/the-smoking-gun-that-proves-how-openai-is-microsofts-revenues-laundromat/
Of course, Microsoft isnât alone in such a fraudulent scheme, which, to be clear, has already been replicated with many other smaller startups. NVIDIA has been a partner in it since the very beginning, hence it should not surprise everyone that they participated in this investment round. NVIDIA has only one goal: keep booking orders for its GPUs to keep its stock valuation inflated to a level that is only justified by the fact that every single person in the world will be eating GPUs for breakfast, lunch, and dinner in the future. However, NVIDIA has a problem with one of the companies that has been instrumental in boosting its incredible (albeit fake) growth: SMCI â THE NUCLEAR NOTHING BURGER THAT CAN EXPOSE NVIDIA SHENANIGANS. That the two companies have been cooperating in the same scheme is obvious to anyone paying attention (âHYPERSCALERSâ OR âHYPERCHEATERSâ? â ADDING HINDENBURG PIECE TO THE BIG PONZI PUZZLE WE HAVE BEEN PUTTING TOGETHER TILL NOW WHILE WAITING FOR NVIDIA EARNINGS), but luckily for them, no one but a few really do nowadays.
SoftBank is another company that participated in OpenAIâs latest fundraise since it belongs to the category of those in desperate need for the bubble not to pop:
IS SOFTBANK TRYING TO SQUEEZE ARM INTO MAJOR INDEXES TO FORCE PASSIVE INVESTING BIDS AND LIQUIDATE THE STOCK WITHOUT CRASHING IT?
DOES SOFTBANK NEED THE WEEKEND TO NEGOTIATE ITS BAILOUT?
IF ARCHEGOS BUSTED CREDIT SUISSE, WHICH BANK WILL A SOFTBANK IMPLOSION SINK?
Is ARM The Canary In The $NVDA Coal Mine?
The DOJ is already investigating on many fronts, from Microsoft and Nvidiaâs questionable buying spree of startup companies to SMCIâs fraudulent accounting. However, all the companies I mentioned are doing such an incredible job combining timely PR, stock buybacks, and extremely sophisticated accounting to keep the fraud from being exposed to the general public that keeps loving them and buying their shares. Mark my words, all this is going to end very badly, ultimately popping the semiconductor bubble and leaving many clueless investors in ETFs, Passive Funds, and Pension Funds significantly damaged (IT HAS NEVER BEEN A BUBBLE IN AI, BUT A PONZI SCHEME IN SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS SINCE THE VERY BEGINNING). However, similar to the Dot Com bubble of the early 2000s, all this oversupply of computing power is ultimately going to significantly lower the costs for all those startups that will leverage AI to build sound business products and operations, and among these, the future mega-caps will emerge like Google, Facebook, or Amazon did in the aftermath of the internet bubble more than 20 years ago.
tw0122
2 months ago
Microsoft-Owned LinkedIn Using People's Data To Train Artificial Intelligence Models
Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Professional networking platform LinkedIn has confirmed that it automatically uses personal user data to train artificial intelligence (AI) models without first informing its members.
The LinkedIn app displayed on a phone in London on Jan. 11, 2021. Edward Smith/Getty Images
The California-headquartered company said in a Sept. 18 blog post that it has updated the privacy policy element of its terms of service to include language clarifying how it uses the information shared with it âto develop the products and services of LinkedIn and its affiliates, including by training AI models used for content generation (âgenerative AIâ) and through security and safety measures.â
The platform said that there is an opt-out setting for members when it comes to using their data for generative AI training.
LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft, which has invested heavily in OpenAI, the developer behind ChatGPT. According to the FAQ section of the platformâs website, the AI models used to power generative AI features may be trained by LinkedIn or another provider, such as Microsoftâs Azure OpenAI service.
The networking site said it uses generative AI for features such as its writing assistant and for suggesting posts or messages.
Personal data such as user posts, usage information, inputs and resulting outputs, language preferences, and any feedback they may provide is among the data processed and used to train AI, LinkedIn said.
When LinkedIn trains generative AI models, it seeks to âminimize personal data in the data setsâ used to train them, including by using privacy-enhancing technologies that redact or remove personal data from the training dataset, the company said.
LinkedIn said the updates to its terms of service will go into effect on Nov. 20.
LinkedIn added that it does not currently train content-generating AI models on data from members located in the European Union, European Economic Area, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
âIf you live in these regions, we and our affiliates will not use your personal data or content on LinkedIn to train or fine-tune generative AI models for content creation without further notice,â the company said.
Opting Out
LinkedIn users in other locations who wish to opt out of allowing the platform to use their data for AI training can visit the âdata for generative AI improvementâ member setting and set it to âoff.â
According to LinkedIn, opting out means that the platform and its affiliates âwonât use your personal data or content on LinkedIn to train models going forward, but does not affect training that has already taken place.â
Meanwhile, Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, announced earlier this month that it will resume training AI models using public content shared by adults on Facebook and Instagram in the UK over the coming months.
That announcement was made after the company paused training to address âregulatory feedback.â
Meta said it will use public information including posts, photos, captions, and comments from accounts of users over the age of 18 to train and improve its generative AI models. It said the content will not include private messages.
A smartphone displays Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg unveiling the Meta logo, in Los Angeles on Oct. 28, 2021. Chris Delmas/AFP via Getty Images
Meta said that users in the UK will soon receive in-app notifications regarding AI training, along with information on how they can access a form to object to their data being used to train generative AI models.
Privacy rights groups have criticized social media platforms for processing usersâ data without their consent and have urged the Information Commissionerâs Office, the UKâs data protection watchdog, to take action.
In a statement, Mariano delli Santi, the legal and policy officer at the UK-based Open Rights Group, said LinkedIn is the latest social media company found to be processing user data without first asking for consent.
âThe opt-out model proves once again to be wholly inadequate to protect our rights: the public cannot be expected to monitor and chase every single online company that decides to use our data to train AI,â he said.
The Epoch Times contacted a LinkedIn spokesperson for further comment but didnât receive a reply by publication time.
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