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Overview |
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MD&A |
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Five-year highlights |
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Financial statements and notes |
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Results |
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Forward-looking statements
Certain statements and other information included in this document, including within the 2024 Guidance
section and the Market outlook sections for each segment, constitute forward-looking information or forward-looking statements (collectively, forward-looking statements) under applicable securities
laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as anticipate, forecast, expect, believe, may, will, should, estimate, project,
intend or other similar words). All statements in this document, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to:
Nutriens business strategies, plans, prospects and opportunities; Nutriens 2024 annual guidance, including expectations regarding our Retail adjusted
EBITDA, Potash sales volumes, Nitrogen sales volumes, Phosphate sales volumes, depreciation and amortization, finance costs, effective tax rate on adjusted earnings and capital expenditures; our projections to generate strong cash from operations
and expectations regarding our capital allocation intentions and strategies, including with respect to expansion of our portfolio of advanced nutrition products and overall growth of the Retail platform and network optimization
initiatives; our ability to advance strategic initiatives and high value growth investments, including expectations regarding our ability to serve growers, maintain a low-cost position of fertilizer production assets and increase free cash
flow; capital spending expectations for 2024 and beyond, including spending related to advancement of proprietary products, network optimization and digital capabilities in Retail, automation in Potash mining, and brownfield expansions in Nitrogen;
expectations regarding our ability to generate free cash flow and return capital to our shareholders, including our expectations regarding stable and growing dividends; our ability to reduce our GHG emissions, and the initiatives in connection
therewith, including the expected impacts in connection with the installment of our final N2O abatement project; expectations and forecasts relating to our Aurora and White
Springs CGUs and the reversals and impairments (as applicable) associated therewith; our ability to advance strategic growth initiatives; the expected impacts and timing of new supply from additional gas fields in Trinidad; the resulting
outlook of higher expected gas costs and lower near-term availability from the new natural gas contract related to our Trinidad property, plant and equipment in our Nitrogen segment and the impairments associated therewith; capital spending
expectations for 2024 and beyond, including our intention to reduce planned capital expenditures in 2024 and our goal to continuously improve in our initiatives and make selective and strategic investments; expectations regarding Retail
inventory levels in North America; expectations regarding performance of our operating segments in 2024, including increased fertilizer sales volumes and growth in Retail earnings; our operating segment market outlooks and our expectations for
global market conditions and fundamentals in 2024 and beyond, including agriculture and crop nutrient markets and global energy supply, the anticipated supply and demand for our products and services, expected market, industry and growing conditions
with respect to crop nutrient application rates, planted acres, grower crop investment, crop mix, including the need to replenish soil nutrient levels, production volumes and expenses, shipments, natural gas costs and availability, consumption,
prices, operating rates, the impact of seasonality, import and export volumes, economic sanctions, inventories, crop development, natural gas curtailments in Trinidad and elsewhere, and global population growth expectations; the expected impact on
nitrogen volume growth of completed brownfield expansions at our Geismar site and the anticipated effects of our UAN debottleneck projects; expectations concerning future product offerings; expectations regarding changes in the agriculture space,
including continued farm consolidation in the US and other developed markets and the continued advancement and adoption of technology and digital innovations, including the use and anticipated effects of autonomous mining and reliability
improvements, new crop input technologies, artificial technology, biostimulants, biological product technologies and advanced nutrition products, and agronomic capabilities; expectations regarding environmental compliance requirements and costs,
including estimates of asset retirement obligations, federal and provincial carbon pricing, permits, approvals and site assessment and remediation costs; expectations regarding our sustainability initiatives and our proposed responses to climate
change, including our GHG emissions reduction strategy and related programs and initiatives, our various sustainability performance goals, targets, costs, capital expenditures, commitments and aspirations as set out in our Feeding the Future Plan
and the 2023 ESG Report; our evaluation of future opportunities with respect to the suspended Geismar clean ammonia project; the negotiation of sales and other contracts, including the expiry of existing contracts; initiatives to promote innovative,
sustainable and productive agriculture; timing and impacts of plant turnarounds; acquisitions and divestitures and the anticipated benefits thereof; and expectations in connection with our ability to deliver long-term returns
to shareholders.
These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which
could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.
All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred
to below and elsewhere in this document. Although we believe that these assumptions are reasonable, having regard to our experience and our perception of historical trends, the assumptions set forth below are not exhaustive of the factors that may
affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. Current conditions, economic and otherwise, render assumptions, although reasonable when made,
subject to greater uncertainty.
Mid-cycle scenarios are based on medium-term estimates for manufactured sales volumes and Retail adjusted EBITDA. Mid-cycle pricing
assumptions are based on a ten-year historical average of fertilizer benchmark pricing from June 2013 to June 2023, plus approximately $50 per tonne. In respect of our mid-cycle scenario estimates, we have made assumptions with respect to, among
other things: our expectations for global economic conditions including supply and demand for fertilizer, fertilizer and commodity prices and global potash volumes returning to historical trend line growth rates; our expectations for our logistics
and production capacity; our expectations for Retail margin normalization; our ability to increase sales volumes as global demand grows; and our expectations for access to and availability of capital, foreign exchange, inflation and interest rates,
costs and availability of labor and technology.
In respect of our GHG emissions reduction and other sustainability and climate-related initiatives and targets, we
have made assumptions with respect to, among other things: that such target is achievable by deploying capital into N2O abatement at our nitric acid production facilities,
energy efficiency improvements, carbon capture, utilization and storage, use of natural gas to generate electricity and waste heat recovery; our ability to successfully
deploy capital and pursue other operational measures, including the successful application to our current and future operations of existing and new technologies; the successful implementation by us of proposed or potential plans in respect thereof;
projected capital investment levels, the flexibility of our capital spending plans and the associated sources of funding; our expectations for our production mix between nitrogen, phosphate and potash and grid decarbonization (including timing
thereof); our ability to otherwise implement all
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Nutrien Annual Report 2023 |
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