sctts
1 day ago
Nah, We're fine
The lowest price per barrel of oil at which companies stop drilling varies depending on several factors, including the type of oil production, location, operational costs, and the financial strategies of individual companies. Thereβs no single universal threshold, but I can provide a range based on available data and industry insights.
For U.S. shale oil producers, particularly in regions like the Permian Basin, breakeven prices for drilling new wells typically range from $48 to $69 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, according to surveys like the Dallas Fed Energy Survey from recent years. Smaller or less efficient companies often need prices closer to $60β$70 to remain profitable, while larger, more efficient operators (e.g., ExxonMobil or Chevron) can sustain drilling at lower prices, around $25β$35 per barrel, due to economies of scale and low-cost assets. Below these levels, many companies halt new drilling projects because the costs of exploration, drilling, and completion exceed the revenue from selling the oil.
For existing wells, the threshold is lower since the upfront capital costs are already sunk. Operating expenses for existing wells in the Permian Basin can be covered at prices as low as $30β$38 per barrel. If oil prices drop below this range, companies may start shutting in production (temporarily stopping output) rather than drilling new wells, though some might continue if theyβve hedged their production at higher prices through futures contracts.
Globally, the picture shifts. Offshore projects, Arctic drilling, and heavy oil production (e.g., Canadian tar sands) often require $50β$70 per barrel or more to be viable due to higher extraction costs. When prices fall below these levels for an extended periodβsay, below $40β$45βactivity in these regions tends to slow or stop entirely, as seen during the 2020 oil price crash when WTI briefly hit negative territory and Brent fell to around $20.
Historically, drilling activity has plummeted when prices linger below $30β$40 for months, as seen in 2016 and 2020. However, some companies might persist at lower prices if they anticipate a rebound, have strong balance sheets, or face pressure to maintain output. Posts on X from 2025 suggest sentiment aligns with this, noting slowdowns below $60β$62, though anecdotal claims of drilling continuing at $48 indicate variability.
So, the tipping point where most companies stop drilling new wells is roughly $40β$50 per barrel for U.S. shale, with higher thresholds ($60+) for less efficient or costlier operations. Below $30, even the most resilient producers start to pull back significantly, focusing only on maintaining existing outputβif that. Itβs a sliding scale, not a hard cutoff, driven by cash flow, debt, and market expectations.