New Month on Monday
05/03/2006
Oil, metals and mining. What more is there in the answer to the question 'where is the money being made'? Well there is a lot more. The market is trying to understand what direction US interest rates are going in. The answer is up, but how much more?
If US interest rates continue higher then expect downward pressure on stock prices. But presently that is not a major problem. $100 for oil though by next winter is being mooted. I would rather bet on slight downward moves and take profits off the table as and when possible.
Looking at individual stocks, Crest Nicholson caught my eye, not least because it is forming a perfect momentum rise in share prices. I have also been looking at the FTSE 100 share price and what is clear is that the price is resting on a support level, but the momentum indicators that I like are showing what is called a bearish divergence, suggesting further falls.
But, when this happened in February, the market moved sideways not down, before rising. Consequently, until I see a close below 6,000 for two days I am willing to remain neutral, but not yet bullish. I would of course be positive and bullish if the FTSE went above 6140 - ie above its recent high levels.
Of the major FTSE 100 movers, Glaxo caught my eye, again, for the lovely way the momentum indicators are moving higher.
Hope to see you at Olympia this Friday 5th and Saturday 6th May to hear talks about the markets and where to make money. The CEO of ADVFN, Clem Chambers will be there too.
(Don't forget to email me if you would like the presentation on the stocks I like for 2006, which I broadcast on BBC2 - the picks in the past two years produced a 83% compound return.)
Value-Growth
Based on my value growth criteria which are based on stocks meeting revenue and profit growth and good value based on criteria such as price earnings growth -remember they are for a 6 month outlook: Abbey, Avon Rubber, Ennstone, among others.
Remember I am targeting about 20-25% with the value growth criteria. Last year it produced 33% return.
On my momentum value indicator (which tracks stocks with value but which in the short term also have money going into the shares) I have: Alexandra, Cosalt, PartyGaming, among others.
Crazy Small Stock
These are high risk volatile stocks which could move sharply higher or move sharply lower in my view, but will almost certainly not stand still. Names on the radar include: Bisichi Mining, Gresham House.
Also, if you would like a free multi-media CDROM on 'Investing Better', which covers spreadbetting, CFD trading and momentum indicators like the MACD, posted to you then drop me an email with your postal address to alpesh@tradermind.com.
Spreadbetters
Spreadbetters and futures traders often look at hard and soft commodities. Here's my quick take on the action for the week ahead:
- Oil: Up
- Copper: Sideways to up
- Gold: Sideways to higher
- £/$: Up
- Dow: Sideways to lower
- FTSE 100: Down
- Soyabean Oil: Up
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