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Alpesh Patel's columns :
02/07/2005	Return Free Risk
01/24/2005	What You Need To Know
01/12/2005	What You Need To Know
12/21/2004	Year End
12/14/2004	Of Mountains and Markets
12/08/2004	Strong Dollar Policy and Other US Macho Nonesense
11/30/2004	Irish Eyes Are Smiling
11/22/2004	Oil. Oh it's so last month
11/15/2004	Eat my shorts
11/08/2004	Big Rally Big Fall
10/31/2004	Big Week
10/25/2004	Vacuum
10/15/2004	Dip and dive or dip and rise: 4600, 4700�4500.
10/11/2004	Oil making us boil.
09/27/2004	The Trends Re-Appear
09/27/2004	Oil
09/21/2004	No Retail Therapy Here
09/14/2004	Do you feel lucky punk?
08/23/2004	The Market Wants To Move Higher
08/17/2004	August a good swing trader's month
08/06/2004	Where are the jobs?
08/02/2004	August a good swing trader's month
07/26/2004	Takeovers abound
07/19/2004	What does Branson tell us?
07/12/2004	Well valued FTSE?
07/02/2004	Well hello July
06/28/2004	Summer aint bad
06/21/2004	The Real Hot Stuff
06/04/2004	Not bad at all
06/01/2004	May was better than April, hows about June then?
05/21/2004	Broader Market View
05/14/2004	Interest Rates or GDP?
04/30/2004	The Run Up To May

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Alpesh Patel – A weekly look at market opportunities and pitfalls

Alpesh B. Patel is one of the UK's best-known traders and financial journalists. He writes a regular column for the Financial Times, has written seven bestselling books on trading, and makes regular television appearances for Bloomberg, Sky Television, Channel 4, The Money Channel, and the BBC.

New Month on Monday

05/03/2006

Oil, metals and mining. What more is there in the answer to the question 'where is the money being made'? Well there is a lot more. The market is trying to understand what direction US interest rates are going in. The answer is up, but how much more?

If US interest rates continue higher then expect downward pressure on stock prices. But presently that is not a major problem. $100 for oil though by next winter is being mooted. I would rather bet on slight downward moves and take profits off the table as and when possible.

Looking at individual stocks, Crest Nicholson caught my eye, not least because it is forming a perfect momentum rise in share prices. I have also been looking at the FTSE 100 share price and what is clear is that the price is resting on a support level, but the momentum indicators that I like are showing what is called a bearish divergence, suggesting further falls.

But, when this happened in February, the market moved sideways not down, before rising. Consequently, until I see a close below 6,000 for two days I am willing to remain neutral, but not yet bullish. I would of course be positive and bullish if the FTSE went above 6140 - ie above its recent high levels.

Of the major FTSE 100 movers, Glaxo caught my eye, again, for the lovely way the momentum indicators are moving higher.

Hope to see you at Olympia this Friday 5th and Saturday 6th May to hear talks about the markets and where to make money. The CEO of ADVFN, Clem Chambers will be there too.

(Don't forget to email me if you would like the presentation on the stocks I like for 2006, which I broadcast on BBC2 - the picks in the past two years produced a 83% compound return.)

Value-Growth

Based on my value growth criteria which are based on stocks meeting revenue and profit growth and good value based on criteria such as price earnings growth -remember they are for a 6 month outlook: Abbey, Avon Rubber, Ennstone, among others.

Remember I am targeting about 20-25% with the value growth criteria. Last year it produced 33% return.

On my momentum value indicator (which tracks stocks with value but which in the short term also have money going into the shares) I have: Alexandra, Cosalt, PartyGaming, among others.

Crazy Small Stock

These are high risk volatile stocks which could move sharply higher or move sharply lower in my view, but will almost certainly not stand still. Names on the radar include: Bisichi Mining, Gresham House.

Also, if you would like a free multi-media CDROM on 'Investing Better', which covers spreadbetting, CFD trading and momentum indicators like the MACD, posted to you then drop me an email with your postal address to alpesh@tradermind.com.