The Market Wants To Move Higher
08/23/2004
With all the things to cry about and the market not moving lower, it must be that the market wants to move higher. Money on the sidelines wants a return. The bears are getting tired by the lack of lower movement despite negative press. So you are left with the market wanting to move higher.
In a low volatility environment, as you would expect, smaller stocks look even more enticing. So let me start with the FTSE 250 then work my down with what looks interesting.
Eurotunnel, with prime under-water property is showing signs of a rise, but my view is that I would prefer to sell into any strength. It has been a very easy 'short'. Randgold Resources shows a bullish technical pattern. My view however is that is only interesting if breaks above 520p support.
iSoft above 380p would convince me it has not run out steam in its upward moves and I would set a target of 450p in 2 months but a stop-loss (ie when I know I am wrong) if it hits 350p.
I am seeing quite a few which are oversold since July, but now starting to make a rise upward. Like most rises after prolongued falls, the first leg is not too bad, then there is a pause, maybe some falls, and finally the second leg is the real 'kicker'. Take Xansa for instance, it's 'kicker' leg is confirmed if it moves above recent resistance of 76p.
ICAP shows a similar pattern: oversold, first rally, moving sideways or down, ready to move up soon.
Outside the FTSE 250, I had a call from Vanco which I had down as a sell in one of my stock ideas elsewhere. Whilst they got a glowing report in a magazine, my take is on technicals, over-expectations of greatness got fed into the price, chased it up and it was now moving downwards in the way a bloated swimmer sinks in a pool. But that's short-term. Medium term, sure, look at the fundamentals is you must. But unless it moves above 250p, I'm afraid I don't see being bullish.
Value-Growth
On the value growth indicator which is my own proprietary indicator which examines stocks for high earnings and profits growth relative to other factors such as debt and also value stocks, based on price to earnings growth, sales, and other criteria - I get the following names this week.
Diploma comes up on the radar with its performance as does Hilton Group. A target of 280p for Hilton Group seems reasonable with a stop loss of 245p. Genus is looking good as is Dart Group and Topps Tiles. Vp I mentioned some time ago and it continues to rocket!
Drop me an email on alpesh.patel@tradermind.com if you would like a free multi-media CDROM and 50 page e-document on 'Investing Better' or order the full 14 CDROM set from the ADVFN online bookstore.
Crazy Small Stock
On this we have Transense Technologies, Redbus, Sondex. All pure adrenalin momentum plays - not recommendations but simply 'crazy small stocks which may continue steep rises (or turn and burn) - but they almost certainly won't stand still.
|