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Alpesh Patel
Alpesh Patel's columns :
11/15/2004Eat my shorts
11/08/2004Big Rally Big Fall
10/31/2004Big Week
10/25/2004Vacuum
10/15/2004Dip and dive or dip and rise: 4600, 4700�4500.
10/11/2004Oil making us boil.
09/27/2004The Trends Re-Appear
09/27/2004Oil
09/21/2004No Retail Therapy Here
09/14/2004Do you feel lucky punk?
08/23/2004The Market Wants To Move Higher
08/17/2004August a good swing trader's month
08/06/2004Where are the jobs?
08/02/2004August a good swing trader's month
07/26/2004Takeovers abound
07/19/2004What does Branson tell us?
07/12/2004Well valued FTSE?
07/02/2004Well hello July
06/28/2004Summer aint bad
06/21/2004The Real Hot Stuff >>
06/04/2004Not bad at all
06/01/2004May was better than April, hows about June then?
05/21/2004Broader Market View
05/14/2004Interest Rates or GDP?
04/30/2004The Run Up To May
04/23/2004Some Big Picture Views
04/16/2004Growth Spurt or Splutter
04/13/2004The interest in Interest rates : beware and prepare.
04/07/2004Pick a Direction Already
03/26/2004After Gordon's Words
03/24/2004Hidden Opportunities
03/10/2004Hidden Opportunities and Big Momentum
02/26/2004So Much Uncertainty

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Alpesh Patel – A weekly look at market opportunities and pitfalls
Alpesh B. Patel is one of the UK's best-known traders and financial journalists. He writes a regular column for the Financial Times, has written seven bestselling books on trading, and makes regular television appearances for Bloomberg, Sky Television, Channel 4, The Money Channel, and the BBC.

The Real Hot Stuff

06/21/2004

Nice weather eh? Warm, good for picnics…Forget it. Whilst you were sunbathing and having fun, rallies are underway. In the US, Yahoo, Apple, Ebay - are all trending higher.

This is no time for leisure and pleasure - get back to those screen…if you please.

Okay, here's the real hot stuff. SIG, in the FSTE 250 is still running up fairly well. Not necessarily a valuation play, but on pure momentum,. With support around 370p - I would definitely change my mind on it if it fell below that level however.

Cairn Energy of course continues roaring ahead. For short term traders it is the base at 1100p to watch for as support - if it breaks the analysis of a continued rally would be wrong. For the very risk averse it is the support level at 1150p.

Check out Findel too for a pure momentum play. Colt Telecom is showing an uptrend since breaking upwards from its downtrend. It's up 20% since the low and likely to climb in my view, but, but, but, I want to see it stay above 80p - else I will be wrong on my analysis.

Sportingbet caught my eye. With full year figures in the twelve months to March 31st showing sales up to £1.08 billion and pre-tax profit rocketing to £9.2m from a paltry £1.4m.

Although the stock has outperformed 98% of stocks in the past 12 months, the trend is in place and looks set to continue.

However, the stock is twice as risky based on volatility as the market average. Any liberalisation of the highly restrictive US online gambling laws, which would benefit the stock, would be a long time coming.

Value-Growth

On the value-growth screen I have which shows me which stocks are well-valued based on a number of my own criteria and also which are showing revenue growth, earning growth and also protected under a number of other criteria including dividend yields - I have some interesting new ones showing up: Findel again, Lookers, although the medium term trend is down, Hunting, but again, the medium term trend is down, Peacock Group, which although it has climbed sharply and so could drop, looks okay for now on a value-growth basis, Kingspan is also promising. Genus shows up, but the recent stratospheric rise means I am hesitant with it.

Don't forget you can get my new multimedia audio-visual CDROMs on 'How To Invest Better' from the ADVFN bookstore under 'Alpesh' in the search engine.

Crazy Small Stock

I get requests for 'high octane plays' - so here goes. Check out JKX Oil & Gas, ASOS is also a bit 'crazy' if it keeps above 30p, OverNet Data is your third.

All pure adrenalin momentum plays - not recommendations but simply 'crazy small stocks which may continue steep rises (or turn and burn) - but they almost certainly won't stand still.


Alpesh B Patel, author of “Alpesh Patel on Stock Futures” available from the ADVFN bookstore.

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