Matt Simpson

Australia’s Inflation appears to have left the building for today’s CPI report. With headline data missing expectations and moving further away from the target band, rate cut-calls are likely on the rise. And May could be a live meeting. In February, the RBA downgraded Q2 CPI and trimmed mean to 2% (2.25% prior), and for […]

NZD/CAD is testing key support of a 5-month double top pattern. Given the size of the prior swings within its downtrend, this could be a pair well worth monitoring for a major break lower over the coming week/s. Seasonally, April and May tend to be bearish months for NZD/CAD and price action is doing its […]

Whilst Australian employment held up, it doesn’t let inflation off the hook as a weak print tomorrow could see rate cut calls resurface. We’ve seen a few mixed messages from RBA of late. On the 10th of April, Guy Debelle sent AUD briefly higher when he reiterated higher growth expectations and that the RBA does […]

USD/JPY is consolidating near the March highs, with a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern still in play. If successful, the pattern projects an approximate target near the November highs, although 113 (psychological round number) and the 113.70 high make suitable, interim target. However, whilst price action has held above the neckline, in an ideal […]

A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators. As of Tuesday the 16th of April: Traders were net-long the US dollar by $28.7bn, the highest level since the end of January. GBP flipped to net long for the first time since June 2018. Improved […]

By a few cents, Apple hit a YTD high and bulls appear set to extend its uptrend ahead of the long weekend. The trend is developing nicely, using the 8 and 21eMA’s as dynamic support. A doji marked a swing low around $196, prior to its burst towards the April high. Enjoying its most bullish […]

Today’s employment data for Australia dispelled any immediate fears of a rate cut. Yet, if a certain correlation is to hold true, we could see unemployment rise and calls for a cut to return with it. Unemployment ticked higher to 5% (4.9% previously) but as this was in line with expectation, the markets took it […]

We highlighted previously that April tends to be the most bullish month for WTI and, having gained 7.3% this month already, is on track to retain its trend. The daily trend structure remains firmly bullish with minor pullbacks and timely cycles. Furthermore, the 8, 21 and 50 eMA’s are fanning and prices are bobbing along […]

New Zealand CPI data missed them mark, instilling a blast of bearish volatility for NZD crosses as traders adjusted to the idea of a May cut. At 1.5% YoY, it’s the lowest CPI read since Q3 2018 and below their own target of 1.6% (markets today were expecting 1.7%). Furthermore, QoQ was just 0.1% vs […]

By yesterday’s close, Goldman Sachs suffered its worst session of the year due to softer earnings and a profit-miss. Closing just below $200 and back within range, it appears to be the victim of a fakeout and bears could be looking to target the lows around 186. Technically there are two scenario’s we’re monitoring; how […]