Matt Simpson

NZD/USD is one of the several majors we’re tracking to try and catch the end of its retracement against USD strength. With NZ employment figures, FOMC and NFP nearby, we expect volatility to be reinstated. We’re leaning towards an RBNZ cut in May so NZ employment figures overnight could be key. Furthermore, with a slightly […]

Last month’s manufacturing PMI rebound is under question after today’s weak print, weighing on AUD whilst equity trader’s question if PBOC will provide yet more stimulus. After expanding for the first time in 5-months, sentiment was lifted and calls for China’s downturn to have bottomed rose. Yet today’s data shows manufacturing barely expanded at 50.1 […]

fter WTI suffered its most bearish session this year on Friday, we think there could be further downside as part of its correction. As we noted in this week’s COT report, WTI has seen a steady decrease of short exposure this year whilst long exposure has also tracked prices higher. So, despite WTI’s wobble at […]

Weekly COT Report – 29th April 2019 VIX net-short exposure hits an all-time record EUR traders extend net-short exposure to their most bearish level since December 2016. GBP flips back to net-short after a 1-week hiatus to the long side NZD net-short exposure is its most bearish level this year           […]

Bruised and battered at 22-month lows, Euro could be in the need of a sympathy bounce before losses continue. If US GDP allows… A slew of weak data from Europe has continued to weigh on the Euro, although it was weak German IFO data on Wednesday which was the straw that broke the camel’s back […]

With Silver prices continuing to coil, it remains touch and go as to which way it could break. But with volatility seemingly brewing around a pivotal area, when it breaks, it could be hard and fast. Ultimately, we suspect silver’s price action is fast-approaching an inflection point. As Fawad Razaqzada noted yesterday, silver has clearly […]

It’s been a big 24-hours for the greenback which saw the US dollar index break to a near-2 year high. Whilst EUR/USD will likely temp bears below 1.1180 and AUD/USD appears ready to crack 70c, it was USD/CHF which led the stampede by several days. And, with it having the best trend structure and least […]

Whilst NZD/JPY appears to be leading the way lower, NZD/CHF looks to be carving out a similar path. Bearish momentum has picked up on NZD/JPY since the 75.96 high (lower high) and, whilst prices have stalled around 73.83 support, but we suspect further losses could materialise following a minor pullback. Keep in mind that news […]

The bullish wedge on Silver we’ve been tracking hangs by a mere thread and currently testing its lower trendline. Even if momentum were to suddenly pick-up, we’d only consider log positions above the $15.34 high. However, given that the moving averages are pointing lower and yesterday closed beneath the October and November high, the near-term […]

With the US dollar contemplating a breakout and BOC unlikely to provide a hawkish surprise, we’re looking for USD/CAD to break above its March high. We head into today’s meeting with little expectation for BOC to shift from their dovish stance. Whilst employment data has been one of the better economic performers for Canada, it […]