Hidden Opportunities
03/24/2004
The fall post-Madrid has been sharp. But unlike 9/11 it is not an acceleration of a downtrend which then snaps back as all the bears are satisfied. Rather, on this occasion, it looks like a trigger post a rally for more falls.
So, for those looking for save havens lets look at names on our value-growth radar of companies that are showing medium term safety in terms of revenue and earnings growth.
Value-Growth Radar
Many of the value-growth stocks are coming off in the short-term from their recent rallies - a case in point is Brandon Hire and also Lw and Bonar. The issue is to what extent you want to time your entry.
At a hedge fund conference this week a speaker talked about the difference between the investment trust manager and the hedge fund manager who likes to go long-short. The issue is are you like the former who likes to buy as the price is falling, or are you like the latter, like me, who likes to buy when the price is rising?
If you are like the latter, like me, you are probably more short-term, not suited to buying an holding for a year, but like steady profits regularly.
Another on the radar for value-growth is Fountains. But Serco really highlights the problem. Check it out on ADVFN's charting facility.
Do you wait for this uptrending stock which is now falling to return to its longer term trend support (yes is my view) which could see a 30% fall in the price, or do you say it is on an uptrend in broad terms, and even if falling, is showing good fundamentals? Well, I have given you my answer. After all, if you are a longer term investor, where's the rush?
By the way, due to popular demand, I am holding another full day training course, so email me if you would like details.
Back at the ranch - who else shows up? Ultra Electronics, and Paddy Power. All will probably have some downward pressure before resuming upwards.
Short-termers
What about short-term selling short the market, ie selling now to buy back cheaply soon? Eurotunnel is moving lower short and medium term. Invensys too looks likely to move lower in line with a medium term trend. Do watch your stop losses however on the upside moves.
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