Matt Simpson

A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators. As of Tuesday 14th May: Large speculators were net-long the US dollar by $29.7 billion ($34.3 against G10 currencies) Net long exposure to the USD fell by -$4.6 billion, the largest weekly decline in 3-month Net […]

Whilst both the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are safe-haven currencies, it’s interesting to note that the yen has remained the favoured currency as trade wars have developed. This has saw CHF/JPY drop to its lowest level since January’s flash crash last week, and if trade wars are to heat up once more, we […]

The announcement that Trump plans to delay EU auto tariffs provided the DAX quite the tailwind yesterday. Technically, we suspect it could extend its bounce from here. Since the prior analysis in April, the bullish channel has maintained its structure and the breakout from compression rallied just shy of the September high around 12,400, after creeping along the inside of the […]

AU Employment Underwhelms | AUD:  69c Defended – Time For A Bounce? Australian unemployment rose to 5.2%, its highest level since August. Whilst it’s not enough to confirm an RBA cut, there are signs unemployment could rise further at a time RBA are closely watching the sector. Unemployment rose faster than expected to 5.2% (vs 5.1% […]

Both Bitcoin and USD/CNH have been on a tare leading up to and around trade talks. But with both markets now pausing for breath at critical levels, traders are closely watching for their next momentous moves. It’s interesting to note that USD/CNH’s breakout has been closely tracked by Bitcoin’s melt up and how Bitcoin was […]

The Aussie found itself under pressure ahead of today’s wage data, thanks to soft consumer growth and Trump’s latest trade-twist. Just 27pips above 69c, it may take more than stronger employment tomorrow for this level to hold. Quarterly wage growth slightly undershot expectations, coming in at 0.5% versus 0.6% expected, whilst the annual rate remained […]

Gold hit a 1-month high against the greenback during yesterday’s risk-off session. But given gold’s strength is broad-based, we suspect its corrective low could be in. It’s constructive to see that gold’s breakout was broad-based and not just limited to the USD. Having created a gold basket by taking a simple average of gold versus […]

Escalated trade tensions saw AUD/JPY hit its lowest level since January’s flash crash, yet dominant forces likely point lower still, without a trade deal in sight. China’s retaliation kept sentiment on the back ropes, seeing USD/JPY hit a 3-month low and FX traders flock back to the yen. AUD/JPY was the largest FX mover of the day, plummeting […]

Since gapping higher on solid earnings results on the 25th April, Facebook has drifted lower along with global equities. However, support was found around $185 on Friday and formed a Rikshaw Man doji pattern to suggest bulls are trying to carve out a swing low. Whilst deadlocked trade talks are weighing on sentiment, it’s worth […]

A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators. As of Tuesday 7th May: Large speculators trimmed USD exposure by -$0.72 billion against G10 currencies and remain long by $38.9 billion. Traders were their most bearish on Euro futures since December 2016 Net-short exposure on […]